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Historical Evidence on the Finance-Trade-Growth Nexus

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Peter L. Rousseau

Abstract

We study linkages between financial development, international trade, and long-run growth using data since 1880 for seventeen now-developed "Atlantic" economies and a set of cross-country and dynamic panel data models. We find that finance and trade reinforced each other before 1930, but that these effects did not persist after the Second World War. Financial development has positive effects on growth throughout the sample period, while trade affects growth strongly and independently after 1945. We attribute the rising importance of trade in explaining growth to major post-World War II changes in tariffs and quantity restrictions associated with the GATT, the establishment of the European Common Market, and the gradual elimination of capital controls after 1973. The findings are robust to the use of 'deep' fundamentals such as legal origin and indicators of the political environment as instruments for financial development and trade. Financial development, however, is more closely linked to these fundamentals than trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bordo & Peter L. Rousseau, 2011. "Historical Evidence on the Finance-Trade-Growth Nexus," NBER Working Papers 17024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17024
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    4. Georgantopoulos, Andreas G. & Tsamis, Anastasios D. & Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K., 2015. "The Euro-adoption effect and the bank, market, and growth nexus: New evidence from EU panels," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 41-51.
    5. Kumar, Saten, 2015. "Regional integration, capital mobility and financial intermediation revisited: Application of general to specific method in panel data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-17.
    6. Emmanuel Carré & Guillaume L’œillet, 2018. "The Literature on the Finance–Growth Nexus in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis: A Review," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(1), pages 161-180, March.
    7. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2013. "The short-run relationship between the financial system and economic growth: New evidence from regional panels," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 70-78.
    8. Atul MEHTA & Joysankar BHATTACHARYA, 2018. "Financial sector development and the poor in developing countries: revisiting the access to finance channel," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(616), A), pages 153-168, Autumn.
    9. Wilfried Kisling & Antonio Tena Junguito, 2019. "German Trade Finance In South America During The Second Industrial Revolution. La Batalla De Buenos Aires, 1875 €“ 1913," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _171, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Alexandra D’Onofrio & Peter L. Rousseau, 2018. "Financial Development, Trade Openness and Growth in the First Wave of Globalization," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(1), pages 105-114, March.
    11. Emmanuel Carré & Guillaume L’Œillet, 2017. "Une revue de la littérature récente sur le nexus finance-croissance après la crise : apports, limites et pistes de recherche," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(3), pages 271-290.
    12. Hu, May & Zhang, Jing & Chao, Chichur, 2019. "Regional financial efficiency and its non-linear effects on economic growth in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 193-206.
    13. Marques, Luís Miguel & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2013. "Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 316-324.
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    15. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "The effect of financial market development on bank risk: evidence from Southeast Asian countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 249-260.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

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