IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/4608.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The econometrics of finance and growth

Author

Listed:
  • Beck, Thorsten

Abstract

This paper reviews different econometric methodologies to assess the relationship between financial development and growth. It illustrates the identification problem, which is at the center of the finance and growth literature, using the example of a simple Ordinary Least Squares estimation. It discusses cross-sectional and panel instrumental variable approaches to overcome the identification problem. It presents the time-series approach, which focuses on the forecast capacity of financial development for future growth rates, and differences-in-differences techniques that try to overcome the identification problem by assessing the differential effect of financial sector development across states with different policies or across industries with different needs for external finance. Finally, it discusses firm-level and household approaches that allow analysts to dig deeper into the channels and mechanisms through which financial development enhances growth and welfare, but pose their own methodological challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Beck, Thorsten, 2008. "The econometrics of finance and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4608, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4608
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2008/04/24/000158349_20080424160616/Rendered/PDF/WPS4608.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2003. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    2. Loayza, Norman V. & Ranciere, Romain, 2006. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 1051-1076, June.
    3. Raddatz, Claudio, 2006. "Liquidity needs and vulnerability to financial underdevelopment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 677-722, June.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    5. Alonso-Borrego, Cesar & Arellano, Manuel, 1999. "Symmetrically Normalized Instrumental-Variable Estimation Using Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 36-49, January.
    6. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Luc Laeven & Ross Levine, 2008. "Finance, Firm Size, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1379-1405, October.
    7. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    8. Pesaran, H. & Smith, R. & Im, K.S., 1995. "Dynamic Linear Models for Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9503, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 423-442, March.
    10. Thorsten Beck, 2003. "Financial Dependence and International Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 296-316, May.
    11. Stijn Claessens & Luc Laeven, 2003. "Financial Development, Property Rights, and Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2401-2436, December.
    12. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    13. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    14. Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
    15. Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2010. "Expanding Credit Access: Using Randomized Supply Decisions to Estimate the Impacts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 433-464, January.
    16. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    17. Felix Rioja & Neven Valev, 2004. "Finance and the Sources of Growth at Various Stages of Economic Development," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(1), pages 127-140, January.
    18. La Porta, Rafael & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. " Legal Determinants of External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1131-1150, July.
    19. Rousseau, Peter L. & Sylla, Richard, 2005. "Emerging financial markets and early US growth," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 1-26, January.
    20. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    21. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
    22. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934 Elsevier.
    23. Calderon, Cesar & Liu, Lin, 2003. "The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 321-334, October.
    24. repec:elg:eebook:17119 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Luc Laeven, 2002. "Does Financial Liberalization Reduce Financing Constraints?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 31(4), Winter.
    26. McCaig, Brian & Stengos, Thanasis, 2005. "Financial intermediation and growth: Some robustness results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 306-312, September.
    27. Klaus Neusser & Maurice Kugler, 1998. "Manufacturing Growth And Financial Development: Evidence From Oecd Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 638-646, November.
    28. Rioja, Felix & Valev, Neven, 2004. "Does one size fit all?: a reexamination of the finance and growth relationship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 429-447, August.
    29. Daniel Kaufmann & Aart Kraay, 2002. "Growth without Governance," ECONOMIA JOURNAL, THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2002), pages 169-230, August.
    30. Griliches, Zvi & Hausman, Jerry A., 1986. "Errors in variables in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 93-118, February.
    31. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2004. "Does Local Financial Development Matter?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(3), pages 929-969.
    32. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    33. Xavier Giné & Pamela Jakiela & Dean Karlan & Jonathan Morduch, 2010. "Microfinance Games," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 60-95, July.
    34. Stephen Bond & Frank Windmeijer, 2002. "Finite sample inference for GMM estimators in linear panel data models," CeMMAP working papers CWP04/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    35. Atje, Raymond & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1993. "Stock markets and development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 632-640, April.
    36. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Hussein, Khaled A., 1996. "Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 387-411, December.
    38. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December.
    39. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    40. Rainer Haselmann & Katharina Pistor & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "How Law Affects Lending," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 549-580, February.
    41. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2002. "Funding growth in bank-based and market-based financial systems: evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 337-363, September.
    42. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Lars Peter Hansen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1988. "A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption and Leisure Choice Under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 51-78.
    43. Levine, Ross, 1999. "Law, Finance, and Economic Growth," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 8(1-2), pages 8-35, January.
    44. Bell, Clive & Rousseau, Peter L., 2001. "Post-independence India: a case of finance-led industrialization?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 153-175, June.
    45. Paul Harrison & Oren Sussman & Joseph Zeira, 1999. "Finance and growth: theory and new evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    46. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M, 2000. "The Role of Financial Development in Growth and Investment," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 341-360, December.
    47. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2004. "Financial development and economic growth: evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 55-74, February.
    48. Jung, Woo S, 1986. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: International Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 333-346, January.
    49. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    50. Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine, 2003. "Legal institutions and financial development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3136, The World Bank.
    51. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    52. Inessa Love, 2003. "Financial Development and Financing Constraints: International Evidence from the Structural Investment Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 765-791, July.
    53. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    54. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    55. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December.
    56. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Vojislav Maksimovic, 1998. "Law, Finance, and Firm Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2107-2137, December.
    57. Raymond Fisman & Inessa Love, 2003. "Trade Credit, Financial Intermediary Development, and Industry Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 353-374, February.
    58. Rousseau, P. L. & Wachtel, P., 2000. "Equity markets and growth: Cross-country evidence on timing and outcomes, 1980-1995," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1933-1957, December.
    59. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    60. Rousseau, Peter L & Wachtel, Paul, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Economic Performance: Historical Evidence from Five Industrialized Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(4), pages 657-678, November.
    61. Mark M. Pitt & Shahidur R. Khandker, 1998. "The Impact of Group-Based Credit Programs on Poor Households in Bangladesh: Does the Gender of Participants Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 958-996, October.
    62. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    63. Rajeev Dehejia & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2007. "Financial Development and Pathways of Growth: State Branching and Deposit Insurance Laws in the United States, 1900–1940," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50, pages 239-272.
    64. repec:hrv:faseco:30728041 is not listed on IDEAS
    65. Leslie G. Godfrey, 1999. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 550-552, August.
    66. Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran, 1998. "Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    67. Matías Braun & Borja Larrain, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-Industry Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1097-1128, June.
    68. De Gregorio, Jose & Guidotti, Pablo E., 1995. "Financial development and economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-448, March.
    69. George Furstenberg & Ulf Kalckreuth, 2006. "Dependence on External Finance: An Inherent Industry Characteristic?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 541-559, December.
    70. Bowsher, Clive G., 2002. "On testing overidentifying restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 211-220, October.
    71. Levine, Ross, 1998. "The Legal Environment, Banks, and Long-Run Economic Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 596-613, August.
    72. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 530-536, June.
    73. John Shea, 1997. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 348-352, May.
    74. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    75. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    76. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    77. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    78. Coleman, Brett E., 1999. "The impact of group lending in Northeast Thailand," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 105-141, October.
    79. Horvath, Michael T.K. & Watson, Mark W., 1995. "Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 984-1014, October.
    80. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    81. Michael P. Murray, 2006. "Avoiding Invalid Instruments and Coping with Weak Instruments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 111-132, Fall.
    82. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    83. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2002. "Industry growth and capital allocation:*1: does having a market- or bank-based system matter?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 147-180, May.
    84. Rohini Pande & Christopher Udry, 2005. "Institutions and Development:A View from Below," Working Papers 928, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Grjebine & Fabien Tripier, 2015. "Excess Finance and Growth: Don't Lose Sight of Expansions !," Working Papers 2015-31, CEPII research center.
    2. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco José, 2013. "How does political instability affect economic growth?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 151-167.
    3. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    4. Moretti, Luigi, 2014. "Local financial development, socio-institutional environment, and firm productivity: Evidence from Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 38-51.
    5. Bertay, Ata Can & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2015. "Bank ownership and credit over the business cycle: Is lending by state banks less procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 326-339.
    6. Kendall, Jake, 2012. "Local financial development and growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1548-1562.
    7. Cecilia Bermúdez & Carlos D. Dabús & Germán H. González, 2015. "Reexamining the link between instability and growth in Latin America: A dynamic panel data estimation using k-median clusters," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, May.
    8. Peia, Oana & Roszbach, Kasper, 2015. "Finance and growth: Time series evidence on causality," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 105-118.
    9. Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2009. "Re-examining the financial development and economic growth nexus in Kenya," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1140-1146, November.
    10. Alex Trew, 2008. "Infrastructure Finance and Industrial Takeoff in the United Kingdom," CDMA Working Paper Series 200809, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Access to Finance; Achieving Shared Growth; Economic Theory&Research; Debt Markets; Statistical&Mathematical Sciences;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4608. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.