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Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth

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  • Norman Loayza
  • Romain Ranciere

Abstract

This paper attempts to reconcile the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by, for instance, private domestic credit and liquid liabilities (e.g., Levine, Loayza, and Beck 2000). On the other hand, the banking and currency crisis literature finds that monetary aggregates, such as domestic credit, are among the best predictors of crises and their related economic downturns (e.g., Kaminski and Reinhart 1999). This paper starts by illustrating these opposing effects by, first, analyzing the dynamics of output growth and financial intermediation around systemic banking crises and, second, showing that the growth enhancing effects of financial depth are weaker in countries that experienced such crises. After these illustrative exercises, the paper attempts an empirical explanation of the apparently opposing effects of financial intermediation. This explanation is based on a distinction between transitory and trend effects of domestic credit aggregates on economic growth. Working with a panel of cross-country and time-series observations, the paper estimates an encompassing model of long- and short-run effects, following Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999)’s Pooled Mean Group Estimator. The main result of the paper is that a positive long-run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth co-exists with a, mostly, negative short-run relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Norman Loayza & Romain Ranciere, 2002. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 684, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_684
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 1999. "Capital Markets and the Instability of Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," Research Department Publications 4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Alonso-Borrego, Cesar & Arellano, Manuel, 1999. "Symmetrically Normalized Instrumental-Variable Estimation Using Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 36-49, January.
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    5. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    6. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran, 1998. "Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    8. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
    9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    10. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    11. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. "Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-389, September.
    12. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank.
    13. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 6370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Batuo, Michael & Mlambo, Kupukile & Asongu, Simplice, 2018. "Linkages between financial development, financial instability, financial liberalisation and economic growth in Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 168-179.
    2. Alejandro Gaytan & Romain Rancière, 2004. "Wealth, financial intermediation and growth," Economics Working Papers 851, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2004.
    3. Simplice A. Asongu, 2015. "Finance and growth: new evidence from meta-analysis," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 615-639, June.
    4. Ben Gamra, Saoussen, 2009. "Does financial liberalization matter for emerging East Asian economies growth? Some new evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 392-403, June.
    5. Alessandra Dal Colle, 2011. "Finance–growth nexus: does causality withstand financial liberalization? Evidence from cointegrated VAR," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 127-154, August.
    6. Marta Simões, 2004. "The Education-growth Nexus Across OECD Countries: Schooling Levels and Parameter Heterogeneity," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_029, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    7. Gérard Duchêne & Ramona Jimborean & Boris Najman, 2006. "Structure of Monetary Assets in Transition Economies: Financial Innovation and Structural Transformation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00270544, HAL.
    8. Simplice A, Asongu, 2011. "Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be wrong in our era. New evidence from Meta-analysis," MPRA Paper 32559, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Feb 2013.
    9. Ramirez-Rondán Nelson, 2007. "Nonlinear Volatility Effects on Growth in Developing Economies," Working Papers 2007-016, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    10. Vladimir Sokolov & Byung‐Joo Lee & Nelson C. Mark, 2011. "Linkages Between Exchange Rate Policy And Macroeconomic Performance," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 395-420, October.
    11. Oðuzhan Yilmaz, 2016. "Analysis of the Relationships between Financial Development and Economic Growth through Romer’s Expanding Variety of Products Model: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1155-1164.

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