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Intégration financière internationale et croissance économique dans les pays émergents et en développement : le canal du développement financier

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  • Jean-Pierre Allegret

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Sana Azzabi

Abstract

Dans cet article, nous testons les implications de l'ouverture financière sur la croissance de long terme via le canal du niveau de développement financier. Notre travail se démarque de la littérature sur un certain nombre de points, notamment en étudiant le lien entre ouverture financière, développement financier et croissance à l'aide d'un modèle à équations simultanées. A partir de la MMG sur panel dynamique, et pour 112 pays émergents et en développement entre 1975 et 2007, les résultats montrent la présence d'un lien positif entre le développement financier et la croissance de long terme. Contrairement aux résultats d'une abondante littérature étayant un impact positif de l'ouverture financière sur le développement financier, nous aboutissons à une conclusion plus nuancée. Celle-ci est robuste à l'introduction de la variable crises financières. La nature de cet impact dépend du choix de l'indicateur de développement financier. Nos estimations concluent toutefois clairement et dans leur plus grande majorité à des effets négatifs importants de l'ouverture financière sur l'activité des intermédiaires financiers et le développement des marchés boursiers pour les pays émergents et en développement. Les résultats pour le sous-groupe de pays émergents et frontière se révèlent plus concluants. Ils défendent sans ambigüité aucune une relation positive entre l'ouverture financière et le développement financier. Les résultats montrent enfin que le développement financier présente un canal de transmission indirect par lequel l'ouverture financière pourrait impacter le rythme de croissance de long terme.

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  • Jean-Pierre Allegret & Sana Azzabi, 2014. "Intégration financière internationale et croissance économique dans les pays émergents et en développement : le canal du développement financier," Post-Print hal-01385944, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01385944
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