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Inflation, Financial Markets and Long-Run Real Activity

  • Elisabeth Huybens

    (Centro de Investigacion Economica (CIE), Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico (ITAM))

  • Bruce D. Smith

    (University of Texas)

Empirical evidence suggest that real activity, the volume of bank lending activity, and the volume of trading in equity markets are strongly positively correlated. At the same time. inflation and the volume of financial market activity are strongly negatively correlated (in the long-run), as are inflation and the real rate of return on equity. Inflation anr real activity are also negatively correlated in the long-run, particularly for economies with relatively high rates of inflation. We present a monetary growth model in which banks and secundary capital markets play a crucial allocative function. We show that - at least under certain configurations of parameters - the predictions of the model are consistent with these and several other observations about finance, inflation and long-run real activity.

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Paper provided by Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM in its series Working Papers with number 9707.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Aug 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cie:wpaper:9707
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  1. Gultekin, N Bulent, 1983. " Stock Market Returns and Inflation: Evidence from Other Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 49-65, March.
  2. Nelson, Charles R, 1976. "Inflation and Rates of Return on Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 471-83, May.
  3. Singh, A. & Hamid, J., 1992. "Corporate Financial Structure in Developing Countries," Papers 1, World Bank - International Finance Corporation.
  4. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  5. Champ, B. & Smith, B.D., 1991. "Currency Elasticity and Banking Panics: theory and Evidence," University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations Working Papers 9109, University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations.
  6. Clark, Todd E, 1997. "Cross-country Evidence on Long-Run Growth and Inflation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 70-81, January.
  7. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
  8. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
  9. King, Robert G & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-37, August.
  10. John H. Boyd & Ross Levine & Bruce D. Smith, 1997. "Inflation and financial market performance," Working Papers 573, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Atje, Raymond & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1993. "Stock markets and development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 632-640, April.
  12. Hicks, J. R., 1969. "A Theory of Economic History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198811633, March.
  13. Levine, Ross, 1996. "Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1678, The World Bank.
  14. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
  15. Townsend, Robert M., 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 265-293, October.
  16. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July.
  17. Elisabeth Huybens & Bruce D. Smith, 1996. "Financial Market Frictions, Monetary Policy and Capital Accumulation in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 9608, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  18. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  19. Bruce D. Smith & John H. Boyd, 1998. "Capital market imperfections in a monetary growth model," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 241-273.
  20. Schreft, Stacey L. & Smith, Bruce D., 1997. "Money, Banking, and Capital Formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 157-182, March.
  21. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
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