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Lending booms: Latin America and the world

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  • Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier
  • Valdés, Rodrigo
  • Landerretche, Oscar

Abstract

Recent theories of crisis put lending booms at the root of financial collapses. Yet lending booms may be a natural consequence of economic development and fluctuations. So are lending booms dangerous? In this paper, we investigate empirically this question using a broad sample of lending boom episodes over 40 years, with a special eye for Latin America. Our results indicate that (1) lending booms are often associated with (i) a domestic investment boom; (ii) an increase in domestic interest rates; (iii) a worsening of the current account; (iv) a declines in reserves; (v) a real appreciation; (vi) a decline in output growth, (2) 'typical' lending booms do not increase substantially the vulnerability of the banking sector or the balance of payments. Comparing Latin America and the rest of the world, we find that Latin America lending booms make the economy considerably more volatile and vulnerable to financial and balance of payment crisis.
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  • Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Valdés, Rodrigo & Landerretche, Oscar, 2001. "Lending booms: Latin America and the world," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123387, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:123387
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    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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