IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

A market-based indicator of currency risk: Evidence from American Depositary Receipts

Listed author(s):
  • Rövekamp, Ingmar
  • Eichler, Stefan

We introduce a novel currency risk measure based on American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). Using a multifactor pricing model, we exploit ADR investors’ exposure to potential devaluation losses to derive an indicator of currency risk. Using weekly data for a sample of 831 ADRs located in 23 emerging markets over the 1994-2014 period, we find that a deterioration in the fiscal and current account balance, as well as higher inflation, increases currency risk. Interaction models reveal that these macroeconomic fundamentals drive currency risk, particularly in countries with managed exchange rates, low levels of foreign exchange reserves and a poor sovereign credit rating.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/145791/1/VfS_2016_pid_6825.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change with number 145791.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2016
Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145791
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.socialpolitik.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2012. "International reserves and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 388-406.
  2. Axel Dreher & Bernhard Herz & Volker Karb, 2006. "Is there a causal link between currency and debt crises?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 305-325.
  3. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
  4. Jürgen Von Hagen & Tai-Kuang Ho, 2007. "Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1037-1066, 08.
  5. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2017. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?," NBER Working Papers 23134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Gagnon, Louis & Andrew Karolyi, G., 2010. "Multi-market trading and arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 53-80, July.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233424, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
  9. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
  10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  11. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
  12. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1995. "Varieties of Capital-Market Crises," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6292, Inter-American Development Bank.
  13. Arquette, Gregory C. & Brown Jr., William O. & Burdekin, Richard C.K., 2008. "US ADR and Hong Kong H-share discounts of Shanghai-listed firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1916-1927, September.
  14. Bernhard Herz & Hui Tong, 2008. "Debt and Currency Crises-Complements or Substitutes?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 955-970, November.
  15. Yeyati, Eduardo Levy & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2004. "The price of inconvertible deposits: the stock market boom during the Argentine crisis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 7-13, April.
  16. Melvin, Michael, 2003. "A stock market boom during a financial crisis?: ADRs and capital outflows in Argentina," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 129-136, October.
  17. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24.
  18. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E., 2012. "Foreign reserve management during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2017-2037.
  19. Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2009. "The ADR shadow exchange rate as an early warning indicator for currency crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1983-1995, November.
  20. Warren Bailey & Kalok Chan & Y. Peter Chung, 2000. "Depositary Receipts, Country Funds, and the Peso Crash: The Intraday Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2693-2717, December.
  21. Auguste, Sebastian & Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Kamil, Herman & Tesar, Linda L., 2006. "Cross-border trading as a mechanism for implicit capital flight: ADRs and the Argentine crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1259-1295, October.
  22. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Systemic Banking Crises Database; An Update," IMF Working Papers 12/163, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
  24. Pasquariello, Paolo, 2008. "The anatomy of financial crises: Evidence from the emerging ADR market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 193-207, December.
  25. Eichler, Stefan, 2011. "Exchange rate expectations and the pricing of Chinese cross-listed stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 443-455, February.
  26. Bae, Sung C. & Kwon, Taek Ho & Li, Mingsheng, 2008. "Foreign exchange rate exposure and risk premium in international investments: Evidence from American depositary receipts," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 165-179, April.
  27. Omar Esqueda & Dave Jackson, 2012. "Currency depreciation effects on ADR returns: evidence from Latin America," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(3), pages 691-711, July.
  28. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1995. "Varieties of Capital-Market Crises," Research Department Publications 4008, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  29. Miller, Victoria, 2000. "Central bank reactions to banking crises in fixed exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 451-472, December.
  30. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Haan, Jakob de, 2010. "When is a central bank governor replaced? Evidence based on a new data set," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 766-781, September.
  31. Kaminsky, Graciela L., 2006. "Currency crises: Are they all the same?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 503-527, April.
  32. Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June.
  33. Bin, Feng-Shun & Blenman, Lloyd P. & Chen, Dar-Hsin, 2004. "Valuation impact of currency crises: Evidence from the ADR market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 411-432.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145791. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.