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Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: application to European data

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  • Afonso, António
  • Gomes, Pedro
  • Furceri, Davide

Abstract

We use EU sovereign bond yield and CDS spreads daily data to carry out an event study analysis on the reaction of government yield spreads before and after announcements from rating agencies (Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch). Our results show: significant responses of government bond yield spreads to changes in rating notations and outlook, particularly in the case of negative announcements; announcements are not anticipated at 1-2 months horizon but there is bi-directional causality between ratings and spreads within 1-2 weeks; spillover effects especially from lower rated countries to higher rated countries; and persistence effects for recently downgraded countries. JEL Classification: C23, E44, G15

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso, António & Gomes, Pedro & Furceri, Davide, 2011. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: application to European data," Working Paper Series 1347, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111347
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Keywords

    credit ratings; rating agencies; sovereign yields;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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