IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v34y2010i12p2861-2873.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The reaction of emerging market credit default swap spreads to sovereign credit rating changes

Author

Listed:
  • Ismailescu, Iuliana
  • Kazemi, Hossein

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of sovereign credit rating change announcements on the CDS spreads of the event countries, and their spillover effects on other emerging economies' CDS premiums. We find that positive events have a greater impact on CDS markets in the two-day period surrounding the event, and are more likely to spill over to other emerging countries. Alternatively, CDS markets anticipate negative events, and previous changes in CDS premiums can be used to estimate the probability of a negative credit event. The transmission mechanisms for positive events are the common creditor and competition in trade markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ismailescu, Iuliana & Kazemi, Hossein, 2010. "The reaction of emerging market credit default swap spreads to sovereign credit rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2861-2873, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:12:p:2861-2873
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(10)00191-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romain Rancière, 2002. "Credit derivatives in emerging markets," Economics Working Papers 856, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    3. Hernandez, Leonardo F. & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2001. "What drives contagion: Trade, neighborhood, or financial links?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 203-218.
    4. Norden, Lars & Wagner, Wolf, 2008. "Credit derivatives and loan pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2560-2569, December.
    5. Frank Packer & Chamaree Suthiphongchai, 2003. "Sovereign credit default swaps," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    6. Ciarlone, Alessio & Piselli, Paolo & Trebeschi, Giorgio, 2009. "Emerging markets' spreads and global financial conditions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 222-239, April.
    7. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    8. Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005. "News spillovers in the sovereign debt market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March.
    9. Forte, Santiago & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2009. "Credit spreads: An empirical analysis on the informational content of stocks, bonds, and CDS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2013-2025, November.
    10. Reisen, Helmut & von Maltzan, Julia, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-293, July.
    11. Jorion, Philippe & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2007. "Good and bad credit contagion: Evidence from credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 860-883, June.
    12. Helmut Reisen & Julia Von Maltzan, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-293, July.
    13. Acharya, Viral V. & Johnson, Timothy C., 2007. "Insider trading in credit derivatives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 110-141, April.
    14. Philippe Jorion & Gaiyan Zhang, 2009. "Credit Contagion from Counterparty Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2053-2087, October.
    15. Steiner, Manfred & Heinke, Volker G, 2001. "Event Study Concerning International Bond Price Effects of Credit Rating Actions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 139-157, April.
    16. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas, 2008. "Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1008-1021, June.
    17. Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. "The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-752, June.
    18. Franck Packer & Haibin Zhu, 2005. "Contractual terms and CDS pricing," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    19. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2813-2843, November.
    20. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
    21. Ilia D. Dichev & Joseph D. Piotroski, 2001. "The Long‐Run Stock Returns Following Bond Ratings Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 173-203, February.
    22. Patrick McGuire & Martijn A Schrijvers, 2003. "Common factors in emerging market spreads," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    23. Stolper, Anno, 2009. "Regulation of credit rating agencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1266-1273, July.
    24. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 1999. "Financial contagion: Spillovers through banking centers," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/17, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    25. Marian Micu & Eli M Remolona & Philip D. Wooldridge, 2006. "The price impact of rating announcements: which announcements matter?," BIS Working Papers 207, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ballester, Laura & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2017. "How credit ratings affect sovereign credit risk: Cross-border evidence in Latin American emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 200-214.
    2. Wengner, Andreas & Burghof, Hans-Peter & Schneider, Johannes, 2015. "The impact of credit rating announcements on corporate CDS markets—Are intra-industry effects observable?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 79-91.
    3. Finnerty, John D. & Miller, Cameron D. & Chen, Ren-Raw, 2013. "The impact of credit rating announcements on credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2011-2030.
    4. Kiesel, Florian, 2016. "The effect of credit and rating events on credit default swap and equity markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 81265, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    5. Kiesel, F., 2016. "The effect of credit and rating events on credit default swap and equity markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 81247, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    6. Imbierowicz, Björn & Wahrenburg, Mark, 2013. "Wealth transfer effects between stockholders and bondholders," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 23-43.
    7. Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2016. "The impact and the spillover effect of a sovereign rating announcement on the euro area CDS market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 264-286.
    8. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    9. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
    10. Fathi Nakai & Tarek Chebbi, 2023. "The informational content of sovereign credit rating: another look," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(5), pages 353-373, September.
    11. Tolikas, Konstantinos & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2017. "Is default risk priced equally fast in the credit default swap and the stock markets? AN empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 39-57.
    12. Kiesel, Florian & Kolaric, Sascha & Schiereck, Dirk, 2016. "Market integration and efficiency of CDS and equity markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 209-229.
    13. Houssam Bouzgarrou & Tarek Chebbi, 2016. "The reaction of sovereign CDS spread volatilities to news announcements," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(5), pages 347-360, September.
    14. Mr. John Kiff & Sylwia Nowak & Miss Liliana B Schumacher, 2012. "Are Rating Agencies Powerful? An Investigation Into the Impact and Accuracy of Sovereign Ratings," IMF Working Papers 2012/023, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2013. "Credit Ratings and Cross-Border Bond Market Spillovers," Discussion Papers in Economics 21075, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    16. Huang, Alex YiHou & Cheng, Chiao-Ming, 2013. "Information risk and credit contagion," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 116-123.
    17. Afonso, António & Gomes, Pedro & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2014. "Sovereign credit ratings, market volatility, and financial gains," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 20-33.
    18. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2015. "Credit ratings and cross-border bond market spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 115-136.
    19. Florian Kiesel, 2021. "It's the tone, stupid! Soft information in credit rating reports and financial markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 553-585, September.
    20. Ballester, Laura & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2021. "Do sovereign ratings cause instability in cross-border emerging CDS markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 643-663.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:12:p:2861-2873. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.