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On crises, contagion, and confusion

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  • Kaminsky, Graciela L.
  • Reinhart, Carmen M.

Abstract

Since the Tequila crisis of 1994-95, the Asian flu of 1997, and the Russian virus of 1998, economists have been busy producing research on the subject of contagion. Yet, few studies have examined empirically through which channels the disturbances are transmitted if there are, indeed, fundamental reasons for the spillovers we observe. We attempt to fill this gap by analyzing how both trade links and the largely ignored financial sector links influence the pattern of fundamentals-based contagion. We examine the role of international bank lending, the potential for cross-market hedging, and bilateral and third-party trade in the propagation of crises.
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Suggested Citation

  • Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:51:y:2000:i:1:p:145-168
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-3.
    4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Joshua Aizenman, 1998. "Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 207-235, June.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    7. Rodrigo Valdés, 1997. "Emerging Market Contagion: Evidence and Theory," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 07, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler, 1996. "Country fund discounts and the mexican crisis of December 1994: Did local residents turn pessimistic before international investors?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 511-534, March.
    9. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    11. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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