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Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets

Author

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  • Mr. Joshua Aizenman
  • Pierre-Richard Agénor

Abstract

This paper interprets contagion effects as an increase in the volatility of aggregate shocks impinging on the domestic economy. The implications of this approach are analyzed in a model with two types of credit market imperfections: domestic banks borrow at a premium on world capital markets, and domestic producers (whose demand for credit results from working capital needs) borrow at a premium from domestic banks. Higher volatility of producers’ productivity shocks increases both domestic and foreign financial spreads and the producers’ cost of capital, resulting in lower employment and higher incidence of default. Welfare effects are nonlinearly related to the degree of international financial integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Joshua Aizenman & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets," IMF Working Papers 1997/127, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1997/127
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua Aizenman & Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 2001. "Optimal tax and debt policy with endogenously imperfect creditworthiness," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 367-395.
    2. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Kaminsky, Graciela L., 1991. "Debt relief and debt rescheduling : The optimal-contract approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 5-36, July.
    3. Martin Uribe, 1996. "The Tequila effect: theory and evidence from Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 552, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Mr. Luis Catão, 1997. "Bank Credit in Argentina in the Aftermath of the Mexican Crisis: Supply or Demand Constrained?," IMF Working Papers 1997/032, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo Valdés, 1997. "Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flows: The Role of Liquidity," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 11, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Jaffee, Dwight & Stiglitz, Joseph, 1990. "Credit rationing," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 837-888, Elsevier.
    7. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Borrowing Risk and the Tequila Effect," IMF Working Papers 1997/086, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Townsend, Robert M., 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 265-293, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; Credit market imperfections; volatility; interest rate spreads; interest rate spread; bank closure; representative bank; probability of default; credit market; enforcement cost; cost of capital; lending rate; domestic bank; Capital markets; Employment; Bank credit; Loans; Productivity; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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