Contagion and trade: why are currency crises regional?
Currency crises tend to be regional; they affect countries in geographic proximity. This suggests that patterns of international trade are important in understanding how currency crises spread, above and beyond and macroeconomic phenomena. We provide empirical support for this hypothesis. Using data for five different currency crises (in 1971, 1973, 1992, 1994, and 1997) we show that currency crises affect clusters of countries tied together by international trade. By way of contrast, macroeconomic and financial influences are not closely associated with the cross-country incidence of speculative attacks. We also show that trade linkages help explain cross-country correlations in exchange market pressure during crisis episodes, even after controlling for macroeconomic factors.
|Date of creation:||1998|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (415) 974-3184
Fax: (415) 974-2168
Web page: http://www.frbsf.org/economics/pbc/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1994.
"Contagious Speculative Attacks,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1055, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Edward E. Leamer & James Levinsohn, 1994.
"International Trade Theory: The Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
4940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kasa, Kenneth & Huh, Chan, 2001.
"A Dynamic Model of Export Competition, Policy Coordination, and Simultaneous Currency Collapse,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 68-80, February.
- Chan Huh & Kenneth Kasa, 1997. "A dynamic model of export competition, policy coordination and simultaneous currency collapse," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 97-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998.
"What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
343, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
- Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999.
"Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper Tigers? A Model of the Asian Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper tigers? A model of the Asian crisis," Research Paper 9822, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Grubel, Herbert G & Lloyd, P J, 1971. "The Empirical Measurement of Intra- Industry Trade," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 47(120), pages 494-517, December.
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986.
"Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996.
"Contagious Currency Crises,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 219-294.
- Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 51-144.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:98-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.