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A Markov switching analysis of contagion in the EMS

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  • Mandilaras, Alex
  • Bird, Graham

Abstract

This paper applies the multivariate version of the Forbes and Rigobon (2002) contagion test, as proposed by Dungey et al. (2005a), to detect contagion effects in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS). Crisis and non-crisis observations are determined endogenously via a Markov-switching vector autoregression (MSVAR). We show that the MSVAR is suitable for this purpose, as it does particularly well in identifying the 11 realignments of the ERM. We examine whether Denmark's rejection of the Maastricht Treaty and Italy's competitiveness problems affected other EMS participants and find evidence for contagion.

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  • Mandilaras, Alex & Bird, Graham, 2010. "A Markov switching analysis of contagion in the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1062-1075, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:6:p:1062-1075
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    5. Lopes, José Mário & Nunes, Luis C., 2012. "A Markov regime switching model of crises and contagion: The case of the Iberian countries in the EMS," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1141-1153.
    6. Gustav A. Horn & Fabian Lindner & Torsten Niechoj, 2011. "Schuldenschnitt für Griechenland - ein gefährlicher Irrweg für den Euroraum," IMK Report 63-2011, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    7. Haytem Troug & Matt Murray, 2020. "Crisis determination and financial contagion: an analysis of the Hong Kong and Tokyo stock markets using an MSBVAR approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(8), pages 1548-1572, December.
    8. Tabak, Benjamin M. & de Castro Miranda, Rodrigo & da Silva Medeiros, Maurício, 2016. "Contagion in CDS, banking and equity markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 120-134.
    9. Sewraj, Deeya & Gebka, Bartosz & Anderson, Robert D.J., 2019. "Day-of-the-week effects in financial contagion," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-226.
    10. Cronin, David & Flavin, Thomas J. & Sheenan, Lisa, 2016. "Contagion in Eurozone sovereign bond markets? The good, the bad and the ugly," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 5-8.
    11. Flavin, Thomas J. & Sheenan, Lisa, 2015. "The role of U.S. subprime mortgage-backed assets in propagating the crisis: Contagion or interdependence?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 167-186.
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    13. Hoe, Foong Chee & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Short - and long-run relationship between oil price and exchange rate: evidence from Malaysia based on Markov regime switching approach," MPRA Paper 112105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Alexakis, Christos & Pappas, Vasileios, 2018. "Sectoral dynamics of financial contagion in Europe - The cases of the recent crises episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 222-239.
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    16. Pedro Nielsen Rotta & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2016. "Analysis of contagion from the dynamic conditional correlation model with Markov Regime switching," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(25), pages 2367-2382, May.
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