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La propagation des crises financieres dans les pays emergents : la contagion est-elle discriminante ?

  • Sophie Brana
  • Delphine Lahet

L’objectif de l’article est d’analyser le comportement des investisseurs a l’egard du risque pays en tant que declencheur des crises financieres et facteur de contagion a l’occasion de la crise asiatique. La contagion a-t-elle touche des pays proches sur le plan des fondamentaux (contagion discriminante), au-dela des canaux traditionnels de transmission des chocs, ou a-t-elle frappe des pays sans discernement en raison d’un mouvement de defiance generalise (contagion pure) ? Les resultats des tests econometriques realises sur un echantillon de pays emergents de 1994 à 2004 montrent que la crise thailandaise a bien provoque un changement de comportement de la part des investisseurs, que l’on peut assimiler a de la contagion pure.

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Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): 103 ()
Pages: 73-96

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2005-3td
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