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An empirical study to identify shift contagion during the Asian crisis

Author

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  • Samuel Bates

    (GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage)

  • Elise Marais

    (CEFI - Centre d'économie et de finances internationales - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The paper is an empirical study on contagion during the 1997–1998 Asian crisis. In line with Sander and Kleimeier [Sander, H., Kleimeier, S., 2003. Contagion and causality: an empirical investigation of four Asian crisis episodes. International Financial Markets, Institution and Money 13, 171–186], Granger causality among Asian economies on sovereign debt market is tested. Using a new measure of causality, we attempt to show the existence of shift contagion defined as significant differences in cross-markets links between tranquil and crisis periods. Firstly, non-existent links during the tranquil period play a key role during the crisis. Secondly, causality directions give evidence of the major influence of the South Korean crisis which seems to prevail on investors to reassess the whole region.
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Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Bates & Elise Marais, 2006. "An empirical study to identify shift contagion during the Asian crisis," Post-Print hal-02136530, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02136530
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    4. Amine Ben Amar & Mondher Bouattour & Makram Bellalah & Stephane Goutte, 2024. "Shift Contagion and Minimum Causal Intensity Portfolio During the COVID-19 and the Ongoing Russia-Ukraine Conflict," Working Papers hal-04522103, HAL.
    5. Daniel Stefan ARMEANU & Adrian ENCIU & Carmen OBREJA & Sorin-Iulian CIOACÃ, 2016. "The Financial Crisis’ Impact on the Central and Eastern Europe Capital Markets," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 17(5), pages 420-431, December.
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    7. Takashi Miyazaki & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2018. "The Determinants Of A Simultaneous Crash In Gold And Stock Markets: An Ordered Logit Approach," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(01), pages 1-25, March.
    8. Amar, Amine Ben & Goutte, Stéphane & Isleimeyyeh, Mohammad & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2022. "Commodity markets dynamics: What do cross-commodities over different nearest-to-maturities tell us?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
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    11. In‐Bong Ha & Bong‐Soo Lee & Chongcheul Cheong, 2007. "What Caused the Korean Currency Crisis in 1997?: Weak Fundamentals or Self‐fulfilling Expectations," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 195-206, June.
    12. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Agan, Busra, 2022. "Effects of COVID-19 on cryptocurrency and emerging market connectedness: Empirical evidence from quantile, frequency, and lasso networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    13. Dungey, Mardi & Harvey, John & Volkov, Vladimir, 2019. "The changing international network of sovereign debt and financial institutions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 149-168.
    14. Amine Ben Amar & Néjib Hachicha & Nihel Halouani, 2021. "Is there a shift contagion among stock markets during the COVID-19 crisis? Further insights from TYDL causality test," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 188-209, March.
    15. Xu, Yingying & Lien, Donald, 2024. "Together in bad times? The effect of COVID-19 on inflation spillovers in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 316-331.
    16. Hadhri, Sinda, 2023. "News-based economic policy uncertainty and financial contagion: An international evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 63-76.
    17. Wajih Khallouli, 2008. "Shift-Contagion in Middle East and North Africa Stock Markets," Working Papers 420, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Jan 2008.
    18. Thomas Chiang & Lin Tan & Jiandong Li & Edward Nelling, 2013. "Dynamic Herding Behavior in Pacific-Basin Markets: Evidence and Implications," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 17(3-4), pages 165-200, September.
    19. Zorgati, Imen & Lakhal, Faten, 2020. "Spatial contagion in the subprime crisis context: Adjusted correlation versus local correlation approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 162-169.
    20. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1483 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Zorgati, Imen & Lakhal, Faten & Zaabi, Elmoez, 2019. "Financial contagion in the subprime crisis context: A copula approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 269-282.
    22. Ur Rehman, Mobeen & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & El-Nader, Ghaith & Alkhataybeh, Ahmad & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modelling the quantile cross-coherence between exchange rates: Does the COVID-19 pandemic change the interlinkage structure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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