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An empirical study to identify shift contagion during the Asian crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Elise Marais

    (CEFI - Centre d'économie et de finances internationales - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Samuel Bates

    (CEREGMIA - Centre de Recherche en Economie, Gestion, Modélisation et Informatique Appliquée - UAG - Université des Antilles et de la Guyane)

Abstract

The paper is an empirical study on contagion during the 1997–1998 Asian crisis. In line with Sander and Kleimeier [Sander, H., Kleimeier, S., 2003. Contagion and causality: an empirical investigation of four Asian crisis episodes. International Financial Markets, Institution and Money 13, 171–186], Granger causality among Asian economies on sovereign debt market is tested. Using a new measure of causality, we attempt to show the existence of shift contagion defined as significant differences in cross-markets links between tranquil and crisis periods. Firstly, non-existent links during the tranquil period play a key role during the crisis. Secondly, causality directions give evidence of the major influence of the South Korean crisis which seems to prevail on investors to reassess the whole region.

Suggested Citation

  • Elise Marais & Samuel Bates, 2006. "An empirical study to identify shift contagion during the Asian crisis," Post-Print hal-01288429, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01288429
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2005.08.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Fateh Belaid & Amine Ben Amar & Stéphane Goutte & Khaled Guesmi, 2023. "Emerging and advanced economies markets behaviour during the COVID‐19 crisis era," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1563-1581, April.
    2. Essahbi Essaadi & Jamel Jouini & Wajih Khallouli, 2009. "The Asian Crisis Contagion: A Dynamic Correlation Approach Analysis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 241-260, June.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Agan, Busra, 2022. "Effects of COVID-19 on cryptocurrency and emerging market connectedness: Empirical evidence from quantile, frequency, and lasso networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    4. Dungey, Mardi & Harvey, John & Volkov, Vladimir, 2019. "The changing international network of sovereign debt and financial institutions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 149-168.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1483 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Zorgati, Imen & Lakhal, Faten & Zaabi, Elmoez, 2019. "Financial contagion in the subprime crisis context: A copula approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 269-282.
    7. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Corbet, Shaen & O'Connell, John F. & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2021. "The influence of aviation disasters on engine manufacturers: An analysis of financial and reputational contagion risks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Meegan, Andrew & Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles, 2018. "Financial market spillovers during the quantitative easing programmes of the global financial crisis (2007–2009) and the European debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 128-148.
    9. Ben Amar, Amine & Bouattour, Mondher & Bellalah, Makram & Goutte, Stéphane, 2023. "Shift contagion and minimum causal intensity portfolio during the COVID-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    10. Daniel Stefan ARMEANU & Adrian ENCIU & Carmen OBREJA & Sorin-Iulian CIOACÃ, 2016. "The Financial Crisis’ Impact on the Central and Eastern Europe Capital Markets," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 17(5), pages 420-431, December.
    11. Ben Amar, Amine & Goutte, Stéphane & Isleimeyyeh, Mohammad, 2022. "Asymmetric cyclical connectedness on the commodity markets: Further insights from bull and bear markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 386-400.
    12. In‐Bong Ha & Bong‐Soo Lee & Chongcheul Cheong, 2007. "What Caused the Korean Currency Crisis in 1997?: Weak Fundamentals or Self‐fulfilling Expectations," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 195-206, June.
    13. Takashi Miyazaki & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2018. "The Determinants Of A Simultaneous Crash In Gold And Stock Markets: An Ordered Logit Approach," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(01), pages 1-25, March.
    14. Amine Ben Amar & Néjib Hachicha & Nihel Halouani, 2021. "Is there a shift contagion among stock markets during the COVID-19 crisis? Further insights from TYDL causality test," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 188-209, March.
    15. Xu, Yingying & Lien, Donald, 2024. "Together in bad times? The effect of COVID-19 on inflation spillovers in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 316-331.
    16. Hadhri, Sinda, 2023. "News-based economic policy uncertainty and financial contagion: An international evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 63-76.
    17. Amar, Amine Ben & Goutte, Stéphane & Isleimeyyeh, Mohammad & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2022. "Commodity markets dynamics: What do cross-commodities over different nearest-to-maturities tell us?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    18. Wajih Khallouli, 2008. "Shift-Contagion in Middle East and North Africa Stock Markets," Working Papers 420, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Jan 2008.
    19. Thomas Chiang & Lin Tan & Jiandong Li & Edward Nelling, 2013. "Dynamic Herding Behavior in Pacific-Basin Markets: Evidence and Implications," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 17(3-4), pages 165-200, September.
    20. Zorgati, Imen & Lakhal, Faten, 2020. "Spatial contagion in the subprime crisis context: Adjusted correlation versus local correlation approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 162-169.
    21. Ur Rehman, Mobeen & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & El-Nader, Ghaith & Alkhataybeh, Ahmad & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modelling the quantile cross-coherence between exchange rates: Does the COVID-19 pandemic change the interlinkage structure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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