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Fatal attraction: Using distance to measure contagion in good times as well as bad

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  • Bayoumi, Tamim
  • Fazio, Giorgio
  • Kumar, Manmohan
  • MacDonald, Ronald

Abstract

This paper proposes a new measure of contagion that is good at anticipating future vulnerabilities. Building on previous work, it uses correlations of equity markets across countries to measure contagion, but in a departure from previous practice measures contagion using the relationship of these correlations with distance. Also in contrast to previous work, our test is good at identifying periods of “positive contagion,” in which capital flows to emerging markets in a herd‐like manner largely unrelated to fundamentals. Identifying such periods of “fatal attraction” is important as they provide the essential ingredients for subsequent crises and rapid outflows of capital.
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  • Bayoumi, Tamim & Fazio, Giorgio & Kumar, Manmohan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2007. "Fatal attraction: Using distance to measure contagion in good times as well as bad," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 259-273.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:16:y:2007:i:3:p:259-273
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    6. Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2016. "Financial Contagion in EFA Markets in Crisis Periods: A Multivariate GARCH Dynamic Conditional Correlation Framework," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 21(2), pages 121-151, July-Dec.
    7. Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Erturk, Mutahhar, 2016. "Do sovereign rating announcements have an impact on regional stock market co-movements? The case of Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 552-567.
    8. Nagayasu, Jun, 2016. "Commonality and Heterogeneity in Real Effective Exchange Rates: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 70078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Eswar S. Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 457-516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Avishek Bhandari, 2020. "A wavelet analysis of inter-dependence, contagion and long memory among global equity markets," Papers 2003.14110, arXiv.org.
    11. Cipollini, Fabrizio & Giannozzi, Alessandro & Menchetti, Fiammetta & Roggi, Oliviero, 2020. "The beauty contest between systemic and systematic risk measures: Assessing the empirical performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 316-332.
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    13. Fazio, Giorgio, 2007. "Extreme interdependence and extreme contagion between emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1261-1291, December.
    14. Jean Coulom & Vijay Shenai, 2018. "The Effect of Alternative Measures of Distance on the Correlation of Real Effective Exchange Rate Returns: An Approach to Contagion Analysis," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, October.
    15. Abdullahi , Shafiu Ibrahim, 2021. "Islamic equities and COVID-19 pandemic: measuring Islamic stock indices correlation and volatility in period of crisis," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 29, pages 50-66.
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    17. Baur, Dirk G. & Fry, Renée A., 2009. "Multivariate contagion and interdependence," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 353-366, September.
    18. Yucel, Eray, 2011. "A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models," MPRA Paper 32893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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