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Spatial modeling of stock market comovements

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  • Fernández-Avilés, Gema
  • Montero, Jose-María
  • Orlov, Alexei G.

Abstract

We model the complex global dependencies in international financial markets using spatial techniques. Our methodology allows us to go beyond conventional correlation analyses and volatility-spillover models confined to studying pairwise relationships, and improves the accuracy of return predictions. We find that stock market comovements are unrelated to geographical proximity, and that financial linkages, as measured by foreign direct investment (FDI) ties, are important in accounting for markets comovements. Our results suggest that the proposed measure of financial distance, coupled with spatial methodology, captures fairly accurately the dependencies in the world financial markets, providing important implications for policymaking and portfolio management.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernández-Avilés, Gema & Montero, Jose-María & Orlov, Alexei G., 2012. "Spatial modeling of stock market comovements," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 202-212.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:9:y:2012:i:4:p:202-212
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2012.05.002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock markets comovements; Geostatistics; Variogram; Kriging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General

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