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Market linkages, variance spillovers and correlation stability: empirical evidences of financial contagion

Listed author(s):
  • Monica Billio

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice C� Foscari)

  • Massimiliano Caporin

    (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche �Marco Fanno�, University of Padova)

We propose a simultaneous equation system with GARCH errors to model the contemporaneous relations among Asian and American stock markets. On the estimated residuals, we evaluate the correlation matrix over rolling windows and introduce a correlation matrix distance, which allows both a graphical analysis and the development of a statistical test of correlation movements. Furthermore, we introduce a methodology that can be used for identifying turmoil periods on a data-driven basis. We employ the previous results in the analysis of the contagion issue between Asian and American stock markets. Our results shows some evidence of contagion and the proposed statistics identifies, on a data-driven basis, turmoil periods consistent with the ones currently assumed in the literature.

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File URL: http://www.unive.it/pag/fileadmin/user_upload/dipartimenti/economia/doc/Pubblicazioni_scientifiche/working_papers/2007/WP_DSE_billio_caporin_18_07.pdf
File Function: First version, 2007
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari" in its series Working Papers with number 2007_18.

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Length: 35
Date of creation: 2007
Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2007_18
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  2. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
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  7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas, 2007. "Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1245-1277, April.
  8. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
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  10. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
  11. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
  12. Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Chapters,in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 269-334 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2002. "Is the international propagation of financial shocks non-linear?: Evidence from the ERM," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 231-246, June.
  17. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  18. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
  19. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 0. "Measuring contagion and interdependence with a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model: An application to the Chilean FX market during the Argentine crisis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 5(2), pages 285-320.
  20. Billio, Monica & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2003. "Contagion and interdependence in stock markets: Have they been misdiagnosed?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 405-426.
  21. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(2), pages 177-197, August.
  22. Dungey, Mardi & Tambakis, Demosthenes N. (ed.), 2005. "Identifying International Financial Contagion: Progress and Challenges," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195187182.
  23. Grubel, Herbert G & Fadner, Kenneth, 1971. "The Interdependence of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 89-94, March.
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