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Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets

  • Geert Bekaert
  • Robert J. Hodrick

The paper characterizes predictable components in excess rates of returns on major equity and foreign exchange markets using lagged excess returns, dividend yields, and forward premiums as instruments. Vector autoregressive techniques demonstrate one-step-ahead predictability and provide implied long-horizon statistics. We estimate latent variable models as constrained counterparts to the VARs. The predictability of returns is related to asset pricing models by examining the volatility bounds on intertemporal marginal rates of substitution.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3790.

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Date of creation: Jul 1991
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Journal of Finance, Vol. 47, No. 2 (June 1992): 467-509.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3790
Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
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  12. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  13. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March.
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  17. Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1987. "Interest rates and risk premia in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 107-123, March.
  18. Wheatley, Simon M., 1989. "A critique of latent variable tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 325-338, August.
  19. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
  20. Gibbons, Michael R. & Ferson, Wayne, 1985. "Testing asset pricing models with changing expectations and an unobservable market portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 217-236, June.
  21. Huizinga, John, 1987. "An empirical investigation of the long-run behavior of real exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 149-214, January.
  22. Solnik, Bruno, 1983. " The Relation between Stock Prices and Inflationary Expectations: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 35-48, March.
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  24. Gallant, A. Ronald & Hansen, Lars Peter & Tauchen, George, 1990. "Using conditional moments of asset payoffs to infer the volatility of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 141-179.
  25. Mark, Nelson C., 1988. "Time-varying betas and risk premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 335-354, December.
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