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Macroeconomic Influences on Optimal Asset Allocation

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  • Flavin, Thomas
  • Wickens, Michael R.

Abstract

We develop a tactical asset allocation strategy that incorporates the effects of macroeconomic variables. The joint distribution of financial asset returns and the macroeconomic variables is modelled using a VAR with an M-GARCH error structure. As a result the portfolio frontier is time varying and subject to contagion from the macroeconomic variable. Optimal asset allocation requires that this be taken into account. We illustrate the how to do this using three risky UK assets and inflation as a macroeconomic factor. Taking account of inflation generates portfolio frontiers that lie closer to the origin, and offers investors superior risk-return combinations.

Suggested Citation

  • Flavin, Thomas & Wickens, Michael R., 2002. "Macroeconomic Influences on Optimal Asset Allocation," CEPR Discussion Papers 3144, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3144
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexis Derviz & Narcisa Kadlcáková, 2005. "Business cycle, credit risk and economic capital determination by commercial banks," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 299-327 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Maurice J. Roche & Kieran McQuinn, 2003. "Grain price volatility in a small open economy," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 77-98, March.
    3. Guidolin, Massimo & Ono, Sadayuki, 2006. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 480-518.
    4. Beltratti, A. & Morana, C., 2006. "Breaks and persistency: macroeconomic causes of stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 151-177.
    5. Jan Brùha & Alexis Derviz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Factors and the Balanced Value of the Czech Koruna/Euro Exchange Rate (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(7-8), pages 318-343, July.
    6. Flavin, Thomas J. & Limosani, Michele G., 2007. "Fiscal, monetary policy and the conditional risk premium in short-term interest rate differentials: an application of Tobin's portfolio theory," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 101-112.
    7. Boris Georgiev, 2014. "Constrained Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization with Alternative Return Estimation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(1), pages 91-107, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset allocation; macroeconomic effects; multivariate GARCH;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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