IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fau/fauart/v56y2006i7-8p318-343.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Factors and the Balanced Value of the Czech Koruna/Euro Exchange Rate (in English)

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Brùha

    (Czech National Bank, Prague)

  • Alexis Derviz

    (Czech National Bank, Charles University, and the Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Prague)

Abstract

The authors study the dependence of the Czech koruna’s exchange rate to the euro on risk factors that cannot be reduced to standard macroeconomic fundamentals. For this purpose, they construct an international asset-pricing model in which the exchange rate is codetermined by a risk factor imperfectly correlated with other priced risks in the economy. The model embeds the standard no-arbitrage setup. It also contains an additional equation that links the autarchic currency price with the foreign-exchange order flow. In the state-space form, the unobserved variables that determine the dynamics of the asset markets, the autarchic exchange rate, and the FX order flow span a number of macroeconomic and latent risk factors. The model for the Czech koruna/euro exchange rate uses Kalman filter techniques. The results indicate the existence of a “non-fundamental” source of systematic divergence between the observed and the autarchic (i.e. fundamental) FX returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Brùha & Alexis Derviz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Factors and the Balanced Value of the Czech Koruna/Euro Exchange Rate (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(7-8), pages 318-343, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:56:y:2006:i:7-8:p:318-343
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1061_s_318_343.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Derviz, Alexis, 2004. "Asset return dynamics and the FX risk premium in a decentralized dealer market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 747-784, August.
    3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Aaron Tornell, 2000. "Exchange Rate Dynamics, Learning and Misperception," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0795, Econometric Society.
    4. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
    5. Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1995. "Statistics and Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521471626, September.
    6. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-451.
    7. Flavin, T. J. & Wickens, M. R., 2003. "Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 207-231.
    8. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    9. Wickens, Michael R. & Smith, Peter N, 2002. "Macroeconomic Sources of FOREX Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Derviz, Alexis, 2004. "Exchange rate risks and asset prices in a small open economy," Working Paper Series 314, European Central Bank.
    11. He, Hua & Modest, David M, 1995. "Market Frictions and Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 94-117, February.
    12. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June.
    13. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    14. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    15. Hall, Alastair R., 2004. "Generalized Method of Moments," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198775201, Decembrie.
    16. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield‐Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luboš Komárek & Martin Motl, 2012. "Behaviorální a fundamentální rovnovážný měnový kurz české koruny [Behavioural and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(2), pages 147-166.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexis Derviz & Narcisa Kadlcáková, 2005. "Business cycle, credit risk and economic capital determination by commercial banks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 299-327, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Kiesel, Rüdiger & Rahe, Florentin, 2017. "Option pricing under time-varying risk-aversion with applications to risk forecasting," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 120-138.
    3. Derviz, Alexis, 2004. "Exchange rate risks and asset prices in a small open economy," Working Paper Series 314, European Central Bank.
    4. Bakshi, Gurdip & Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2008. "Stochastic risk premiums, stochastic skewness in currency options, and stochastic discount factors in international economies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 132-156, January.
    5. Derviz, Alexis, 2004. "Asset return dynamics and the FX risk premium in a decentralized dealer market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 747-784, August.
    6. Christoffersen, Peter & Heston, Steven & Jacobs, Kris, 2010. "Option Anomalies and the Pricing Kernel," Working Papers 11-17, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim & Gibson, Michael & Zhou, Hao, 2011. "Dynamic estimation of volatility risk premia and investor risk aversion from option-implied and realized volatilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 235-245, January.
    8. Lüders, Erik & Lüders-Amann, Inge & Schröder, Michael, 2004. "The Power Law and Dividend Yields," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-51, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Ricardo Crisóstomo, 2021. "Estimating real‐world probabilities: A forward‐looking behavioral framework," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1797-1823, November.
    10. Geert Bekaert & Eric C. Engstrom & Nancy R. Xu, 2022. "The Time Variation in Risk Appetite and Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 3975-4004, June.
    11. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    12. Guégan, Dominique & Ielpo, Florian & Lalaharison, Hanjarivo, 2013. "Option pricing with discrete time jump processes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2417-2445.
    13. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2011. "Disasters Implied by Equity Index Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 1969-2012, December.
    14. Carmen Gloria Silva, 2010. "Forward premium puzzle and term structure of interest rates: the case of New Zealand," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 570, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Yarema Okhrin & Weining Wang, 2015. "Uniform Confidence Bands for Pricing Kernels," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 376-413.
    16. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2007. "Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1975-2019, November.
    17. Joshua Rosenberg, 1999. "Empirical Tests of Interest Rate Model Pricing Kernels," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-015, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    18. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    19. Driessen, Joost & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo, 2005. "Testing affine term structure models in case of transaction costs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 201-232, May.
    20. George Halkos & Argyro Zisiadou, 2020. "Is Investors’ Psychology Affected Due to a Potential Unexpected Environmental Disaster?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-24, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:56:y:2006:i:7-8:p:318-343. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalie Svarcova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.