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Testing affine term structure models in case of transaction costs

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  • Driessen, Joost
  • Melenberg, Bertrand
  • Nijman, Theo

Abstract

In this paper we empirically analyze the impact of transaction costs on the performance of affine interest rate models. We test the implied (no arbitrage) Euler restrictions, and we calculate the specification error bound of Hansen and Jagannathan to measure the extent to which a model is misspecified. Using data on T-bill and bond returns we find, under the assumption of frictionless markets, strong evidence of misspecification of one- and two-factor affine interest rate models. This is in line with earlier research. However, we show that the pricing errors of these models are reduced considerably, if relatively small transaction costs are taken into account. The average transaction costs for T-bills, due to the bid-ask spread, are around 1.5 basis points. At this size of transaction costs and for monthly holding periods, the misspecification of one- and two-factor affine interest rate models becomes statistically insignificant and economically very small. For quarterly holding periods, higher transaction costs of around 3 basis points are required to avoid misspecification.
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  • Driessen, Joost & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo, 2005. "Testing affine term structure models in case of transaction costs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 201-232, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:126:y:2005:i:1:p:201-232
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    3. Frans de Roon & Marta Szymanowska, 2012. "Asset Pricing Restrictions on Predictability: Frictions Matter," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(10), pages 1916-1932, October.
    4. Rudolf Alvise Lennkh & Florian Walch, 2015. "Collateral Damage? Micro-Simulation of Transaction Cost Shocks on the Value of Central Bank Collateral," Working Papers 6, European Stability Mechanism.
    5. Andrea Beltratti & Paolo Colla, 2007. "A portfolio-based evaluation of affine term structure models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 193-222, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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