IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v33y2009i3p473-485.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Linear-quadratic term structure models - Toward the understanding of jumps in interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Jiang, George
  • Yan, Shu

Abstract

We study linear-quadratic term structure models with random jumps in the short rate process where the jump arrival rate follows a stochastic process. Empirical results based on the US data show that incorporating stochastic jump intensity significantly improves model fit to the dynamics of both interest rate and volatility term structure. Our results also show that jump intensity is negatively correlated with interest rate changes and the average size is larger on the downside than upside. Examining the relation between jump intensity and macroeconomic shocks, we find that at monthly frequency, jumps are neither triggered by nor predictive of changes in macroeconomic variables. At daily frequency, however, we document interesting patterns for jumps associated with information shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, George & Yan, Shu, 2009. "Linear-quadratic term structure models - Toward the understanding of jumps in interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 473-485, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:3:p:473-485
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(08)00200-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
    2. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    4. Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
    5. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    6. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    7. Leippold, Markus & Wu, Liuren, 2002. "Asset Pricing under the Quadratic Class," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(02), pages 271-295, June.
    8. Pearson, Neil D & Sun, Tong-Sheng, 1994. " Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1279-1304, September.
    9. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
    10. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    11. Longstaff, Francis A., 1989. "A nonlinear general equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 195-224, August.
    12. Jagannathan, Ravi & Kaplin, Andrew & Sun, Steve, 2003. "An evaluation of multi-factor CIR models using LIBOR, swap rates, and cap and swaption prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 113-146.
    13. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 31-50.
    14. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
    16. Piazzesi, Monika, 2001. "An Econometric Model of the Yield Curve With Macroeconomic Jump Effects," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt5946p7hn, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    17. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
    18. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    19. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Robert F. Dittmar, 2002. "Quadratic Term Structure Models: Theory and Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 243-288, March.
    20. Zhou, Bin, 1996. "High-Frequency Data and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-52, January.
    21. Peng Cheng & Olivier Scaillet, 2007. "Linear-Quadratic Jump-Diffusion Modeling," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 575-598.
    22. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Nonparametric Pricing of Interest Rate Derivative Securities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 527-560, May.
    23. Ball, Clifford A. & Roma, Antonio, 1994. "Stochastic Volatility Option Pricing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(04), pages 589-607, December.
    24. Feng Zhao & Robert Jarrow & Haitao Li, 2004. "Interest Rate Caps Smile Too! But Can the LIBOR Market Models Capture It?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 431, Econometric Society.
    25. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 127-161, April.
    26. Constantinides, George M, 1992. "A Theory of the Nominal Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 531-552.
    27. Duffee, Gregory R., 2006. "Term structure estimation without using latent factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 507-536, March.
    28. T. Clifton Green, 2004. "Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1201-1234, June.
    29. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
    30. George Chacko, 2002. "Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: A General Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 195-241, March.
    31. Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "An Econometric Model of the Yield Curve with Macroeconomic Jump Effects," NBER Working Papers 8246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Sun, Tong-sheng, 1992. "Real and Nominal Interest Rates: A Discrete-Time Model and Its Continuous-Time Limit," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 581-611.
    33. Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
    34. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
    35. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2002. "Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 415-441, March.
    36. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beliaeva, Natalia & Nawalkha, Sanjay, 2012. "Pricing American interest rate options under the jump-extended constant-elasticity-of-variance short rate models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 151-163.
    2. Artuç, Erhan & Demiralp, Selva, 2010. "Discount window borrowing after 2003: The explicit reduction in implicit costs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 825-833, April.
    3. Spencer, Peter & Liu, Zhuoshi, 2010. "An open-economy macro-finance model of international interdependence: The OECD, US and the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 667-680, March.
    4. Moreno, Manuel & Serrano, Pedro & Stute, Winfried, 2011. "Statistical properties and economic implications of jump-diffusion processes with shot-noise effects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(3), pages 656-664, November.
    5. Chen, An-Sing & Cheng, Lee-Young & Cheng, Kuang-Fu, 2009. "Intrinsic bubbles and Granger causality in the S&P 500: Evidence from long-term data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2275-2281, December.
    6. Jang, Bong-Gyu & Yoon, Ji Hee, 2010. "Analytic valuation formulas for range notes and an affine term structure model with jump risks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2132-2145, September.
    7. Dungey, Mardi & Henry, Olan T & Hvodzdyk, Lyudmyla, 2013. "The impact of jumps and thin trading on realized hedge ratios," Working Papers 2013-02, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 28 Mar 2013.
    8. Dungey, Mardi & Hvozdyk, Lyudmyla, 2012. "Cojumping: Evidence from the US Treasury bond and futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1563-1575.
    9. Dungey, Mardi & Hvozdyk, Lyudmyla, 2010. "Cojumping: Evidence from the US Treasury Bond and Future Markets (Discussion Paper 2010-06)," Working Papers 10450, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 14 Jul 2010.
    10. Liu, Zhuoshi & Spencer, Peter, 2013. "Modelling sovereign credit spreads with international macro-factors: The case of Brazil 1998–2009," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 241-256.
    11. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:119-129 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Chris Kenyon & Andrew Green, 2015. "Dirac Processes and Default Risk," Papers 1504.04581, arXiv.org.
    13. Wright, Jonathan H. & Zhou, Hao, 2009. "Bond risk premia and realized jump risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2333-2345, December.
    14. Realdon, Marco, 2009. ""Extended Black" term structure models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 232-238, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:3:p:473-485. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.