Estimating exponential affine models with correlated measurement errors: Applications to fixed income and commodities
Exponential affine models (EAMs) are factor models popular in financial asset pricing requiring a dynamic term structure, such as for interest rates and commodity futures. When implementing EAMs it is usual to first specify the model in state-space form (SSF) and then to estimate it using the Kalman filter. To specify the SSF, a structure of the measurement error must be provided which is not specified in the EAM itself. Different specifications of the measurement errors will result in different SSFs, leading to different parameter estimates. In this paper we investigate the influence of the measurement error specification on the parameter estimates. Using market data for both fixed income and commodities we provide evidence that measurement errors are cross-sectionally and serially correlated, which is not consistent with the independent identically distributed (iid) assumptions commonly adopted in the literature. Using simulated data we show that measurement error assumptions affect parameter estimates, especially in the presence of serial correlation. We provide a new specification, the augmented state-space form (ASSF), as a solution to these biases and show that the ASSF gives much better estimates than the basic SSF.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
- de Jong, Frank, 1999.
"Time-series and Cross-section Information in Affine Term Structure Models,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2065, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- de Jong, Frank, 2000. "Time Series and Cross-Section Information in Affine Term-Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 300-314, July.
- Nguyen, Vu-Nhat & Geman, Hélyette, 2005. "Soybean Inventory and Forward Curve Dynamics," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/1937, Paris Dauphine University.
- Marsh, Terry A & Rosenfeld, Eric R, 1983. " Stochastic Processes for Interest Rates and Equilibrium Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(2), pages 635-46, May.
- de Munnik, Jeroen F. J. & Schotman, Peter C., 1994. "Cross-sectional versus time series estimation of term structure models: empirical results for the Dutch bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 997-1025, October.
- Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000.
"Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions,"
Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
- Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 1999. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," NBER Working Papers 7105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hélyette Geman & Vu-Nhat Nguyen, 2005. "Soybean Inventory and Forward Curve Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(7), pages 1076-1091, July.
- Joyce, Michael & Lildholdt, Peter & Sorensen, Steffen, 2009.
"Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: a joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves,"
Bank of England working papers
360, Bank of England.
- Joyce, Michael A.S. & Lildholdt, Peter & Sorensen, Steffen, 2010. "Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: A joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 281-294, February.
- Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2005. "Stochastic Convenience Yield Implied from Commodity Futures and Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2283-2331, October.
- Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
- M. A. H. Dempster & Elena Medova & Ke Tang, 2012. "Determinants of oil futures prices and convenience yields," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 1795-1809, December.
- Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2010.
"China's official rates and bond yields,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 996-1007, May.
- Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995.
"Which Moments to Match,"
95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Liu, Peng (Peter) & Tang, Ke, 2010. "No-arbitrage conditions for storable commodities and the modeling of futures term structures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1675-1687, July.
- M. A. H. Dempster & M. Germano & E. A. Medova & M. I. Rietbergen & F. Sandrini & M. Scrowston, 2007. "Designing minimum guaranteed return funds," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 245-256.
- Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
- Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
- de Jong, Frank & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 1999. "The Dynamics of the Forward Interest Rate Curve: A Formulation with State Variables," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 131-157, March.
- Bjørn Eraker, 2004. "Do Stock Prices and Volatility Jump? Reconciling Evidence from Spot and Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1367-1404, 06.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:3:p:639-652. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.