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The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models

Author

Listed:
  • Jens H. E. Christensen
  • Francis X. Diebold
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch

Abstract

We derive the class of arbitrage-free affine dynamic term structure models that approximate the widely-used Nelson-Siegel yield-curve specification. Our theoretical analysis relates this new class of models to the canonical representation of the three-factor arbitrage-free affine model. Our empirical analysis shows that imposing the Nelson-Siegel structure on this canonical representation greatly improves its empirical tractability; furthermore, we find that improvements in predictive performance are achieved from the imposition of absence of arbitrage.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Working Paper Series 2007-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2007-20
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    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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