IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey

  • Kaya, Huseyin

In this study we investigate the yield curve forecasting performance of Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model (DNS), affine term structure VAR model (ATSM VAR) and principal component model (PC) in Turkey. We also investigate the role of macroeconomic variables in forecasting the yield curve. We have reached numbers of important results: 1—Macroeconomic variables are very useful in forecasting the yield curve. 2—The forecasting performances of the models depend on the period under review. 3—Considering the structural break which associates with change in monetary policy leads models to produce better forecasts than the random walk. 4—The role of exchange rate should not be ruled out in forecasting the yield curve in an emerging market like Turkey.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 33 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 1-7

in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:1-7
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June.
  2. Yu, Wei-Choun & Zivot, Eric, 2011. "Forecasting the term structures of Treasury and corporate yields using dynamic Nelson-Siegel models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 579-591.
  3. Dibooglu, Sel & Kibritcioglu, Aykut, 2004. "Inflation, output growth, and stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 43-61.
  4. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
  6. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
  7. Telatar, Erdinc & Telatar, Funda & Ratti, Ronald A., 2003. "On the predictive power of the term structure of interest rates for future inflation changes in the presence of political instability: the Turkish economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 931-946, December.
  8. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2003. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  10. Hakan Berument & Asli GŸnay, 2001. "Exchange Rate Risk and Interest Rate : A Case Study for Turkey," Working Papers 0110, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
  11. Hordahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David, 2006. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term-structure dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 405-444.
  12. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  13. Ravi Bansal & Hao Zhou, 2002. "Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1997-2043, October.
  14. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
  15. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-029, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  16. Gaston Gelos & Alessandro Prati & Oya Celasun, 2003. "Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?," IMF Working Papers 03/49, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Erdem Basci & Ozgur Ozel & Cagri Sarikaya, 2007. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey : New developments," Working Papers 0704, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  18. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  20. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
  21. Civcir, Irfan & Akçaglayan, AnIl, 2010. "Inflation targeting and the exchange rate: Does it matter in Turkey?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 339-354, May.
  22. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  23. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2006. "Forecasting with Breaks," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  24. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States," IMF Working Papers 10/258, International Monetary Fund.
  25. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Huseyin Kaya & M. Ege Yazgan, 2011. "Has 'inflation targeting' increased the predictive power of term structure about future inflation: evidence from Turkish experience?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(20), pages 1539-1547.
  27. Constantinides, George M, 1992. "A Theory of the Nominal Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 531-52.
  28. Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting: No‐Arbitrage Restrictions versus Large Information Set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 124-156, 03.
  29. C. Emre Alper & K. Kazimov & A. Akdemir, 2007. "Forecasting the term structure of interest rates for Turkey: a factor analysis approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 77-85.
  30. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
  31. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  32. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:1-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.