Inflation, Output Growth, and Stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002
Using a dynamic aggregate supply and aggregate demand model with imperfect capital mobility and structural VARs, we decompose inflation and output movements into those attributable to terms of trade, supply, balance-of-payments, fiscal, and monetary shocks. Empirical results show that terms of trade shocks have a significant negative effect on inflation in the short run. In the long run, monetary, and balance of payments shocks dominate while budget deficits play a limited role in the inflationary process. Demand shocks have limited effects on output movements; output is mostly driven by terms of trade and supply shocks. The results highlight the importance of a credible disinflation program and structural reform that restrain discretionary aggregate demand policies.
|Date of creation:||04 Jun 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||Type of Document - Acrobat Reader/PDF; prepared on PC; to print on any printer; pages: 33 ; figures: included|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pierre-Richard AgÃ©nor & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1997. "Money, Wages and Inflation in Middle-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/174, International Monetary Fund.
- Laura Papi & G. C. Lim, 1997. "An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 97/170, International Monetary Fund.
- Christopher F. Baum & John T. Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999.
"Persistence in International Inflation Rates,"
Southern Economic Journal,
Southern Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 900-913, April.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999.
"The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Aykut Kibritcioglu & Bengi Kibritcioglu, 2003. "Ham Petrol ve Akaryakit Urunu Fiyat Artislarinin Turkiye'deki Enflasyonist Etkileri (= Inflationary Effects of Increases in Prices of Improted Crude-Oil and Oil-Products in Turkey)," Macroeconomics 0306003, EconWPA.
- Quah, Danny, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- H. Sonmez Atesoglu & Donald Dutkowsky, 1995. "Money, output and prices in Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 38-41.
- Onis, Ziya & Ozmucur, Suleyman, 1990. "Exchange rates, inflation and money supply in Turkey : Testing the vicious circle hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 133-154, January.
- C. Emre Alper & Murat Ucer, 1998. "Some Observations on Turkish Inflation: A ''Random Walk'' Down the Past Decade," Working Papers 1998/02, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
- Gert Wehinger, 2000. "Causes of Inflation in Europe, the United States and Japan: Some Lessons for Maintaining Price Stability in the EMU from a Structural VAR Approach," Empirica, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 83-107, March.
- Marco Rossi & Daniel Leigh, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 02/204, International Monetary Fund.
- Danny Quah & Danny Quah & Shaun P. Vahey, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0254, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Erol, Turan & Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1997. "Real exchange rate targeting and inflation in Turkey: An empirical analysis with policy credibility," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1717-1730, October.
- Metin, Kivilcim, 1995. "An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 513-31, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0306001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.