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Inflation, Output Growth, and Stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002

Author

Listed:
  • Sel Dibooglu

    (Southern Illinois University at Carbondale)

  • Aykut Kibritcioglu

    (Ankara University)

Abstract

Using a dynamic aggregate supply and aggregate demand model with imperfect capital mobility and structural VARs, we decompose inflation and output movements into those attributable to terms of trade, supply, balance-of-payments, fiscal, and monetary shocks. Empirical results show that terms of trade shocks have a significant negative effect on inflation in the short run. In the long run, monetary, and balance of payments shocks dominate while budget deficits play a limited role in the inflationary process. Demand shocks have limited effects on output movements; output is mostly driven by terms of trade and supply shocks. The results highlight the importance of a credible disinflation program and structural reform that restrain discretionary aggregate demand policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Sel Dibooglu & Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2003. "Inflation, Output Growth, and Stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002," Macroeconomics 0306001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0306001
    Note: Type of Document - Acrobat Reader/PDF; prepared on PC; to print on any printer; pages: 33 ; figures: included
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C. Emre Alper & Murat Ucer, 1998. "Some Observations on Turkish Inflation: A ''Random Walk'' Down the Past Decade," Working Papers 1998/02, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
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    1. repec:eee:crpeac:v:20:y:2009:i:5:p:568-590 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Torul Orhan & Alper C. Emre, 2010. "Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on the Manufacturing Sector in Turkey," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 90-105, July.
    3. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2011. "Monetary policy and credit cards: Evidence from a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 201-210.
    4. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
    5. Yeliz Yalcin & Cengiz Arikan & Furkan Emirmahmutoglu, 2015. "Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 737-746, November.
    6. Çatik, A. Nazif & Önder, Özlem, 2013. "An asymmetric analysis of the relationship between oil prices and output: The case of Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 884-892.
    7. Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
    8. Dedeoğlu, Dinçer & Kaya, Hüseyin, 2014. "Pass-through of oil prices to domestic prices: Evidence from an oil-hungry but oil-poor emerging market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 67-74.
    9. Fatma Zeren & Levent Korap, 2010. "A Cost-based Empirical Model of the Aggregate Price Determination for the Turkish Economy: A Multivariate Cointegration Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(2), pages 173-188, June.
    10. Araç, Ayşen & Hasanov, Mübariz, 2014. "Asymmetries in the dynamic interrelationship between energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 259-269.
    11. Tamer Kulaksizoglu, 2016. "Measuring the Turkish core inflation with a shifting mean model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 57-70, August.
    12. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "The yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 100-107.
    13. Kulaksizoglu, Tamer, 2015. "Measuring the Core Inflation in Turkey with the SM-AR Model," MPRA Paper 62653, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Causes and effects of inflation; inflation theories; stabilization policy; theory of aggregate supply and aggregate demand; time series models; Turkish economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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