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Nonlinearity and Structural Stability in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Turkey

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  • Mubariz Hasanov

    (Hacettepe University, Department of Economics)

  • Aysen Arac

    (Hacettepe University, Department of Economics)

  • Funda Telatar

    (Hacettepe University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate possible nonlinearities in the inflation–output relationship in Turkey for the 1980–2008 period. We first estimate a linear bivariate model for the inflation rate and output gap, and test for linearity of the estimated model against nonlinear alternatives. Linearity test results suggest that the relationship between the inflation rate and output gap is highly nonlinear. We estimate a bivariate timevarying smooth transition regression model, and compute dynamic effects of one variable on the other by generalized impulse response functions. Computed impulse response functions indicate that inflation–output relationship in Turkey during the analyzed period was regime dependent and varied considerably across time.

Suggested Citation

  • Mubariz Hasanov & Aysen Arac & Funda Telatar, 2012. "Nonlinearity and Structural Stability in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Turkey," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20123, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hac:hacwop:20123
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    File URL: http://www.iktisat.hacettepe.edu.tr/WP/WP-2012-3.pdf
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    4. Phiri, Andrew, 2015. "Examining asymmetric effects in the South African Philips curve: Evidence from logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) models," MPRA Paper 64487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Xu, Qifa & Niu, Xufeng & Jiang, Cuixia & Huang, Xue, 2015. "The Phillips curve in the US: A nonlinear quantile regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 186-197.
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    7. Marco Gross & Willi Semmler, 2019. "Mind the Output Gap: The Disconnect of Growth and Inflation during Recessions and Convex Phillips Curves in the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(4), pages 817-848, August.
    8. Nurudeen Abu, 2019. "Inflation and Unemployment Trade-off: A Re-examination of the Phillips Curve and its Stability in Nigeria," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(1), March.
    9. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Inflation Targeting Country: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 6(1), pages 7-18, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips Curve; Nonlinearity; Structural Stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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