Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets by Using the Phillips Curve and Alternative Time Series Models
The aim of this paper is to investigate the performance of the Phillips curve to forecast inflation in a high inflation emerging market country by taking Turkey as a case. For this purpose, we compare the forecasting performance of the Phillips curve with alternative time series models, namely, the univariate ARIMA model, vector autoregression and vector error correction model, and a naive no-change model. The data pertains to the quarterly inflation rate in Turkey for the 1987-2001 period. The results show that inflation forecasts obtained from the Phillips curve are found to be more accurate than forecasts based on other macroeconomic variables. The remaining models outperform the "no-change model" in most of the cases.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 40 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111024|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997.
"Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Lars E O Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francisco d Nadal De Simone, 2000. "Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models," IMF Working Papers 00/162, .
- Lee, Jim, 1999. "Alternative P* Models of Inflation Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(2), pages 312-325, April.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Sachs, Jeffrey, 1980. "The Changing Cyclical Behavior of Wages and Prices: 1890-1976," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 78-90, March.
- Tkacz, Greg, 2001. "Neural network forecasting of Canadian GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-69.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1977. "Can the Inflation of the 1970s be Explained?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(1), pages 253-279. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)