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Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets by Using the Phillips Curve and Alternative Time Series Models




The aim of this paper is to investigate the performance of the Phillips curve to forecast inflation in a high inflation emerging market country by taking Turkey as a case. For this purpose, we compare the forecasting performance of the Phillips curve with alternative time series models, namely, the univariate ARIMA model, vector autoregression and vector error correction model, and a naive no-change model. The data pertains to the quarterly inflation rate in Turkey for the 1987-2001 period. The results show that inflation forecasts obtained from the Phillips curve are found to be more accurate than forecasts based on other macroeconomic variables. The remaining models outperform the "no-change model" in most of the cases.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Özlem Önder, 2004. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets by Using the Phillips Curve and Alternative Time Series Models," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 71-82, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:40:y:2004:i:2:p:71-82

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. A. Ozlem Onder, 2009. "The stability of the Turkish Phillips curve and alternative regime shifting models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2597-2604.
    2. Filiz Yesilyurt & J. Elhorst, 2014. "A regional analysis of inflation dynamics in Turkey," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
    4. Öğünç, Fethi & Akdoğan, Kurmaş & Başer, Selen & Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Ertuğ, Dilara & Hülagü, Timur & Kösem, Sevim & Özmen, Mustafa Utku & Tekatlı, Necati, 2013. "Short-term inflation forecasting models for Turkey and a forecast combination analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 312-325.
    5. A. Nazif Çatik & Christopher Martin & A. Özlem Onder, 2011. "Relative price variability and the Phillips Curve: evidence from Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 546-561, September.
    6. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Inflation Targeting Country: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 6(1), pages 7-18, April.
    7. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "Testing The Existence And Stability Of Phillips Curve In Romania," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 10(1), pages 67-74.
    8. M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2011. "Price Rigidity In Turkey : Evidence From Micro Data," Working Papers 1125, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    9. A. Nazif Çatik & A. Özlem Önder, 2011. "Inflationary Effects of Oil Prices in Turkey: A Regime-Switching Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 125-140, September.
    10. Islam, Faridul & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad, 2011. "Phillips curve in a small open economy: A time series exploration of North Cyprus," MPRA Paper 28397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. A. Nazif Çatik & A. Özlem Önder, 2011. "Inflationary Effects of Oil Prices in Turkey: A Regime-Switching Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(5), pages 125-140, September.

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    forecasting; inflation; Phillips curve;


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