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The Stability Of The Turkish Phillips Curve And Alternative Regime Shifting Models

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  • Özlem Önder

    (Department of Economics, Ege University)

Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence supporting instability of the Phillips curve in Turkey. We employ the multiple structural break models and the Markov switching models and then evaluate the performance of the two models. The data pertains to the monthly inflation rate in Turkey for the period of 1987-2004. The results show that the Turkish Phillips curve is not linear. There exists no evidence on the asymmetry in the inflation response to output gap. The persistence of inflation is found to be much lower than in linear models. After 2001 slight decline in persistence of inflation is observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Özlem Önder, 2006. "The Stability Of The Turkish Phillips Curve And Alternative Regime Shifting Models," Working Papers 0602, Ege University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ege:wpaper:0602
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    File URL: http://iibf.ege.edu.tr/economics/papers/wp06-02.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. Özlem Önder, 2004. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets by Using the Phillips Curve and Alternative Time Series Models," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 71-82, March.
    2. Mr. Francisco d Nadal De Simone, 2000. "Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models," IMF Working Papers 2000/162, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Frédérick Demers, 2003. "The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting," Staff Working Papers 03-32, Bank of Canada.
    4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
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    2. Cristian Constantin Popescu & Laura Diaconu (Maxim), 2022. "Inflation – Unemployment Dilemma. A Cross-Country Analysis," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 69(3), pages 377-392, June.
    3. A. Nazif Çatik & Christopher Martin & A. Özlem Onder, 2011. "Relative price variability and the Phillips Curve: evidence from Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(5), pages 546-561, September.
    4. Sin-Yu Ho & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "Unemployment And Inflation: Evidence Of A Nonlinear Phillips Curve In The Eurozone," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 53(4), pages 151-163, Fall.
    5. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Inflation Targeting Country: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 6(1), pages 7-18, April.
    6. Onatunji Olufemi Gbenga & Adejumo Oluwabunmi Opeyemi & Olabode Oluwayinka Samuel, 2024. "A new perspective on the asymmetric Phillips curve: Fresh evidence from ECOWAS member countries," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Paradigm, vol. 27(1), pages 115-135.
    7. Mustafa Kocoglu, 2023. "Drivers of inflation in Turkey: a new Keynesian Phillips curve perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2825-2853, August.
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    9. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir, 2012. "Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy: A Time Series Exploration of North Cyprus," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 35(4), pages 113-130.

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    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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