The stability of the Turkish Phillips curve and alternative regime shifting models
This article, presents empirical evidence supporting instability of the Phillips curve in Turkey. We employ the multiple structural break models and the Markov-switching models and then evaluate the performance of the two models. The data pertain to the monthly inflation rate in Turkey for the period of 1987 to 2004. The results show that the Turkish Phillips curve is not linear. There exists no evidence on the asymmetry in the inflation response to output gap. The persistence of inflation is found to be much lower than in linear models. After 2001, slight decline in persistence of inflation is observed. There exits weaker support for the Phillips curve for the periods where the policymakers attempt to take the advantage of the tradeoff between output and inflation relationship.
Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 20 ()
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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- A. Özlem Önder, 2004.
"Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets by Using the Phillips Curve and Alternative Time Series Models,"
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,
M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(2), pages 71-82, March.
- A. Ã–Zlem Ã–Nder, 2004. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets by Using the Phillips Curve and Alternative Time Series Models," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 71-82, March.
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