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Trend-cycle correlation, drift break and the estimation of trend and cycle in Canadian GDP

  • Arabinda Basistha

Univariate correlated trend cycle models are highly sensitive to the specifications of breaks in the data. This paper argues, using Monte Carlo experiments, that a bivariate correlated unobserved components (UC) framework with breaks delivers substantially more accurate results for the trend-cycle parameters than the corresponding univariate frameworks in a finite sample size. The paper estimates stochastic trend and cyclical fluctuations in Canada from a bivariate UC model. Results show a fairly volatile stochastic trend after the drift break and the negative trend-cycle shock correlation are accounted for. The estimated cyclical component is large, persistent, and consistent with ECRI denoted Canadian recessions.

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Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 40 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 584-606

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Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:40:y:2007:i:2:p:584-606
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  1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  8. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  9. St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
  10. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  11. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
  12. Basistha, Arabinda & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 498-511, March.
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  14. Tatsuma Wada & Pierre Perron, 2005. "Trend and Cycles: A New Approach and Explanations of Some Old Puzzles," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 252, Society for Computational Economics.
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