IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey

  • Hasanov, Mübariz
  • Araç, Aysen
  • Telatar, Funda

In this paper, we investigate possible nonlinearities in the inflation-output relationship in Turkey for the 1980-2008 period. We first estimate a linear bivariate model for the inflation rate and output gap, and test for linearity of the estimated model against nonlinear alternatives. Linearity test results suggest that the relationship between the inflation rate and output gap is highly nonlinear. We estimate a bivariate time-varying smooth transition regression model, and compute dynamic effects of one variable on the other by generalized impulse response functions. Computed impulse response functions indicate that inflation-output relationship in Turkey during the analyzed period was regime dependent and varied considerably across time.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VB1-4YW37J1-1/2/1c148488312ec55f8f35ce722f1f7f02
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 27 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 1103-1115

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:5:p:1103-1115
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Schaling, Eric, 2004. "The Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Inflation Forecast Targeting: Symmetric versus Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 361-86, June.
  2. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
  3. Christopher Martin & A. Nazif Çatik & A. Özlem Onder, 2011. "Relative price variability and the Phillips Curve: evidence from Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 546-561, November.
  4. Goodwin, Barry K. & Holt, Matthew T. & Prestemon, Jeffery P., 2008. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," MPRA Paper 9684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Telatar, Erdinc & Telatar, Funda & Ratti, Ronald A., 2003. "On the predictive power of the term structure of interest rates for future inflation changes in the presence of political instability: the Turkish economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 931-946, December.
  6. Javier Andres & Ignacio Hernando, 1997. "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence for the OECD," NBER Working Papers 6062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "U.S. wage and price dynamics: a limited information approach," Staff Reports 256, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  9. Michael Arghyrou & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2003. "Non-linear Inflationary Dynamics: Evidence from the UK," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 03-03, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  10. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1992. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 4089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  12. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
  13. Sel Dibooglu & Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2003. "Inflation, Output Growth, and Stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002," Macroeconomics 0306001, EconWPA.
  14. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  15. Robert J. Gordon, 1970. "The Recent Acceleration of Inflation and Its Lessons for the Future," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(1), pages 8-47.
  16. Jackman, Richard & Sutton, John, 1982. "Imperfect Capital Markets and the Monetarist Black Box: Liquidity Constraints, Inflation and the Asymmetric Effects of Interest Rate Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(365), pages 108-28, March.
  17. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1.
  18. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(2), pages 433-494.
  19. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
  20. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1997. "Modelling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9734/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  21. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
  22. Donald P. Morgan, 1993. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 21-33.
  23. Nobay, A. R. & Peel, D. A., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with a nonlinear Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 159-164, May.
  24. Asikoglu, Y. & Uctum, M., 1989. "A Critical Evaluation Of Exchange Rate Policy In Turkey," Cahiers de recherche 8919, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
  25. Sollis, Robert, 2008. "U.S. dollar real exchange rates: Nonlinearity revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 516-528, June.
  26. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Price Expectations and the Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 342-50, June.
  27. Funda Telatar & Erdinc Telatar, 2003. "The relationship between inflation and different sources of inflation uncertainty in Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 431-435.
  28. Douglas Laxton & Guy Debelle, 1996. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Working Papers 96/111, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Matthew T. Holt & Lee A. Craig, 2006. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Structural Change in the U.S. Hog—Corn Cycle: A Time-Varying STAR Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 215-233.
  30. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2001. "The forecasting performance of various models for seasonality and nonlinearity for quarterly industrial production," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-14, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  31. Yazgan M. Ege & Yilmazkuday Hakan, 2005. "Inflation Dynamics of Turkey: A Structural Estimation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, March.
  32. A. Özlem Önder, 2004. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets by Using the Phillips Curve and Alternative Time Series Models," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(2), pages 71-82, March.
  33. Erdinc Telatar & Mubariz Hasanov, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity in transition economies: evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 157-173.
  34. Andrew J. Filardo, 1998. "New evidence on the output cost of fighting inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III.
  35. Canova, Fabio, 2007. "G-7 Inflation Forecasts: Random Walk, Phillips Curve Or What Else?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 1-30, February.
  36. Laurence Ball, 1993. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Working Papers 4306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. n/a, 2001. "Balance of payments prospects in EMU," NIESR Discussion Papers 164, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  38. Tsiddon, Daniel, 1993. "The (Mis)Behaviour of the Aggregate Price Level," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 889-902, October.
  39. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  40. Stanley Fischer, 1993. "The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth," NBER Working Papers 4565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2005. "Exact tests of the stability of the Phillips curve: the Canadian case," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 445-460, April.
  42. Cover, James Peery, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-82, November.
  43. Alberto Musso & Livio Stracca & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Instability and Nonlinearity in the Euro-Area Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 181-212, June.
  44. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
  45. Erdinc Telatar & Mubariz Hasanov, 2006. "The asymmetric effects of monetary shocks: the case of Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(18), pages 2199-2208.
  46. Ho-Chuan (River) Huang & Ya-Kai Chang, 2005. "INVESTIGATING OKUN's LAW BY THE STRUCTURAL BREAK WITH THRESHOLD APPROACH: EVIDENCE FROM CANADA," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(5), pages 599-611, 09.
  47. Yash P. Mehra, 2004. "Predicting the recent behavior of inflation using output gap-based Phillips curves," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 65-88.
  48. Rothman, Philip & van Dijk, Dick & null, Philip Hans, 2001. "Multivariate Star Analysis Of Money Output Relationship," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 506-532, September.
  49. Blinder, Alan S, 1997. "Is There a Core of Practical Macroeconomics That We Should All Believe?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 240-43, May.
  50. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-66, September.
  51. Öcal Nadir, 2000. "Nonlinear Models for U.K. Macroeconomic Time Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 1-15, October.
  52. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
  53. repec:fth:harver:1418 is not listed on IDEAS
  54. Yesim Kustepeli, 2005. "A comprehensive short-run analysis of a (possible) Turkish Phillips curve," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 581-591.
  55. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  56. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  57. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Are the Output Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Sample of European Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 267-78, May.
  58. Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David & Tambakis, Demosthenes, 1999. "The U.S. Phillips curve: The case for asymmetry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1459-1485, September.
  59. Robert Sollis, 2004. "Asymmetric adjustment and smooth transitions: a combination of some unit root tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 409-417, 05.
  60. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
  61. Andreas Fischer, 1996. "Central bank independence and sacrifice ratios," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 5-18, January.
  62. Temple, Jonathan, 2002. "Openness, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve: A Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 450-68, May.
  63. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
  64. Robert J. Gordon, 1977. "Can the Inflation of the 1970s be Explained?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(1), pages 253-279.
  65. Mubariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2008. "Nonlinearities in emerging stock markets: evidence from Europe's two largest emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(20), pages 2645-2658.
  66. Andrew C. Caplin & Daniel F. Spulber, 1987. "Menu Costs and the Neutrality of Money," NBER Working Papers 2311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. Hasanov, Mübariz & Omay, Tolga, 2008. "Monetary policy rules in practice: Re-examining the case of Turkey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(16), pages 4309-4318.
  68. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  69. David Romer, 1993. "The New Keynesian Synthesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 5-22, Winter.
  70. Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2000. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 376, Stockholm School of Economics.
  71. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  72. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  73. Weise, Charles L, 1999. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: A Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 85-108, February.
  74. Daniels, Joseph P & Nourzad, Farrokh & Vanhoose, David D, 2005. "Openness, Central Bank Independence, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 371-79, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:5:p:1103-1115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.