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Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey

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  • Hasanov, Mübariz
  • Araç, Aysen
  • Telatar, Funda

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate possible nonlinearities in the inflation-output relationship in Turkey for the 1980-2008 period. We first estimate a linear bivariate model for the inflation rate and output gap, and test for linearity of the estimated model against nonlinear alternatives. Linearity test results suggest that the relationship between the inflation rate and output gap is highly nonlinear. We estimate a bivariate time-varying smooth transition regression model, and compute dynamic effects of one variable on the other by generalized impulse response functions. Computed impulse response functions indicate that inflation-output relationship in Turkey during the analyzed period was regime dependent and varied considerably across time.

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  • Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:5:p:1103-1115
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    Cited by:

    1. Phiri, Andrew, 2015. "Examining asymmetric effects in the South African Philips curve: Evidence from logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) models," MPRA Paper 64487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Xu, Qifa & Niu, Xufeng & Jiang, Cuixia & Huang, Xue, 2015. "The Phillips curve in the US: A nonlinear quantile regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 186-197.
    3. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Inflation Targeting Country: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 6(1), pages 7-18, April.
    4. Go Tamakoshi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2012. "Informational roles of commodity prices for monetary policy: evidence from the Euro area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1282-1290.
    5. Araç, Ayşen & Hasanov, Mübariz, 2014. "Asymmetries in the dynamic interrelationship between energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 259-269.
    6. Walter Bazan-Palomino & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2014. " The New Keynesian Framework for a Small Open Economy with Structural Breaks: Empirical Evidence from Peru," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2014-384, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    7. Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Endogenous monetary approach to optimal inflation-growth nexus in Swaziland," MPRA Paper 88258, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. repec:gam:jecomi:v:5:y:2017:i:3:p:24-:d:103909 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Semmler, Willi & Gross, Marco, 2017. "Mind the output gap: the disconnect of growth and inflation during recessions and convex Phillips curves in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2004, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve Nonlinearity Structural stability;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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