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National Institute of Economic and Social Research

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers

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Content

2023

548 Vertical and Horizontal Mismatch in the UK: Are Graduates' Skills a Good Fit for Their Jobs?
by Michela Vecchi & Catherine Robinson & Maja Savic & Marina Romiti
547 NiReMS: A Regional Model at Household Level Combining Spatial Econometrics with Dynamic Microsimulation
by Arnab Bhattacharjee & Adrian Pabst & Tibor Szendrei & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings
546 Spatial Agglomeration, Innovation and Firm Survival for Italian Manufacturing Firms
by Arnab Bhattacharjee & Ornella Maietta & Fernanda Mazzotta

2022

545 Financial Development, Cycles and Income Inequality in a Model with Good and Bad Projects
by Spiros Bougheas & Pasquale Commendatore & Laura Gardini & Ingrid Kubin
544 Fire Sales and Ex Ante Valuation of Systemic Risk: A Financial Equilibrium Networks Approach
by Spiros Bougheas & Adam Spencer
543 Financial Stocks and Flows in the Time of Covid-19
by Stephen Millard & Nicholas Jackson
542 Corporate Tax Shields and Capital Structure: Levelling the Playing Field in Debt vs Equity Finance
by Cao, Yifei & Whyte, Kemar
541 Asymmetry and Interdependence when Evaluating U.S. Energy Information Agency Forecasts
by Garratt, Anthony & Petrella, Ivan & Zhang, Yunyi
540 Profits, Pandemics, and Lockdown Effectiveness in Nursing Home Networks
by Pongou, Roland & Sidie, Ghislain Junior & Tchuente, Guy & Tondji, Jean-Baptiste
539 Financing Higher Education in England: The Fiscal Implications of Reform
by Hantzsche, Arno & Young, Garry
538 Nowcasting Growth using Google Trends Data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Model
by Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Kohns, David
537 Agroforestry Programs in the Colombian Amazon: Selection, Treatment and Exposure Effects on Deforestation
by Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Aravena, Claudia & Castillo, Natalia & Ehrlich, Marco & Taou, Nadia & Wagner, Thomas
536 Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Bank Profitability in Three Major African Counties: Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa
by Davis, E Philip & Ali Abdilahi, Ridwa
535 The Macro-Economic Effects of UK Aid Returning to 0.7 per cent of GNI
by Holland, Dawn & te Velde, Dirk Willem
534 The Dollar Debt of Companies in Latin America: the warning signs
by Giraldo, Iader & Turner, Philip

2021

533 Macroprudential Policy, Bank Competition and Bank Risk in East Asia
by E Philip Davis & Ka Kei Chan & Dilruba Karim
532 The Sahm Rule and Predicting the Great Recession Across OECD Countries
by David Blanchflower & Alex Bryson
531 Modelling the impact of Covid-19 on the UK economy: an application of a disaggregated New-Keynesian model
by Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young
530 Modelling and Estimating Large Macroeconomic Shocks During the Pandemic
by Luisa Corrado & Stefano Grassi & Aldo Paolillo
529 Micro level data for macro models: the distributional effects of monetary policy
by Luisa Corrado & Daniela Fantozzi
528 Be kind or take it on the chin? Political narratives, pandemics, and social distancing
by Kartik Anand & Prasanna Gai & Edmund Lou & Sherry X. Wu
527 The long-run investment effect of taxation in OECD countries
by Jakob B. Madsen & Antonio Minniti & Francesco Venturini
526 Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Error Correction Networks and Common Correlated Effects
by Arnab Bhattacharjee & Sean Holly & Jan Ditzen
525 What we can learn about economics from professional sport during Covid-19
by Alex Bryson & Peter Dolton & J. James Reade & Dominik Schreyer & Carl Singleton

2020

524 Causal effects of an absent crowd on performances and refereeing decisions during Covid-19
by Alex Bryson & Peter Dolton & J. James Reade & Dominik Schreyer & Carl Singleton
523 Outlier detection methodologies for alternative data sources: International review of current practices
by Janine Boshoff & Xuxin Mao & Garry Young
522 Does Obamacare Care? A Fuzzy Difference-in-Discontinuities Approach
by Guy Tchuente & Hector Galindo-Silva & Nibene Habib Some
521 An Economic Model of Health-vs-Wealth Prioritization During COVID-19: Optimal Lockdown, Network Centrality, and Segregation
by Roland Pongou & Guy Tchuente & Jean-Baptiste Tondji
520 When the penny doesn't drop - Macroeconomic tail risk and currency crises
by Chanelle Duley & Prasanna Gai
519 Bank reserves and broad money in the global financial crisis: a quantitative evaluation
by Jagjit S. Chadha & Luisa Corrado & Jack Meaning & Tobias Schuler
518 How to not miss a productivity revival once again?
by Bart van Ark & Klaas de Vries & Abdul Erumban
517 Time series models for epidemics: leading indicators, control groups and policy assessment
by Andrew C. Harvey
516 Banking Concentration and Financial Crises
by Ray Barrell & Dilruba Karim
515 Macroprudential Policy, Monetary Policy and the Bank Interest Rate Margin
by E Philip Davis & Dilruba Karim & Dennison Noel
514 The Effects of Macroprudential Policy on Banks' Profitability
by E Philip Davis & Dilruba Karim & Dennison Noel
513 The Fed's enhanced swap lines and new interventions in the Treasury market
by Richhild Moessner & William Anthony Allen
512 Brexit and the Euro
by Nauro F Campos & Corrado Macchiarelli

2019

511 What does leadership look like in schools and does it matter for school performance?
by Alex Bryson & Lucy Stokes & David Wilkinson
510 The evolution of tax implicit value judgements, redistribution and income inequality in the UK: 1968 to 2015
by Justin Van de Ven & Nicolas Herault
509 A Century of High Frequency UK Macroeconomic Statistics: A Data Inventory
by Jagjit S Chadha & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Sylaja Srinivasan & Ryland Thomas
508 Below the Aggregate: A Sectoral Account of the UK Productivity Puzzle
by Rebecca Riley & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Lea Samek
507 The Indeterminacy Agenda in Macroeconomics
by Roger E A Farmer
506 Tax Policy for Innovation
by Bronwyn H Hall
505 Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve
by Roger E A Farmer & Giovanni Nicolo
504 Nominal GDP growth indexed bonds: Business Cycle and Welfare Effects within the Framework of New Keynesian DSGE model
by Yongo Kwon
503 Distressed Banks, Distorted Decisions?
by Gareth Anderson & Rebecca Riley & Garry Young
502 A Comparison of Earnings Related to Higher Level Vocational/Technical and Academic Education
by Hector Espinoza & Stefan Speckesser
501 The Impact of the Introduction of the National Living Wage on Employment, Hours and Wages
by Andrew Aitken & Peter Dolton & Rebecca Riley
500 The Bank Capital-Competition-Risk Nexus - A Global Perspective
by E Philip Davis & Dilruba Karim & Dennison Noel
499 Bank Leverage Ratios, Risk and Competition - An Investigation Using Individual Bank Data
by E Philip Davis & Dilruba Karim & Dennison Noel
498 The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in Overlapping Generations Models
by Roger Farmer & Pawel Zabczyk
497 Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies for Sustained Growth in Asia
by Joseph E Gagnon & Philip Turner
496 Young people’s education choices and progression to Higher Education; A comparison of A-Level and Non-A-Level students in Key Stage 5, their subject choices and transitions to university
by Matt Bursnall & Andriena Naddeo & Stefan Speckesser

2018

495 Understanding and Confronting Uncertainty: Revisions to UK Government Expenditure Plans
by Jagjit Chadha & Arno Hantzsche & Adrian Pabst & Thomas Lazarowicz & Garry Young
494 Real-time Forecast Combinations for the Oil Price
by Anthony Garratt & Shaun P. Vahey & Ynuyi Zhang
493 Is Football a Matter of Life and Death – Or is it more Important than that?
by Peter Dolton & George MacKerron
492 The Lack of Wage Growth and the Falling NAIRU
by David N F Bell & David G Blanchflower
491 The Role of Financial Policy
by Roger E A Farmer
490 Implementing Macroprudential Policy in NiGEM
by Oriol Carreras & E Philip Davis & Ian Hurst & Iana Liadze & Rebecca Piggott & James Warren
489 Effects of asset purchases and financial stability measures on term premia in the euro area
by Richhild Moessner
488 The Impact of Management Practices on SME Performance
by Alex Bryson & John Forth
487 The Household Fallacy
by Roger Farmer & Pawel Zabczyk
486 Consumption Dynamics, Housing Collateral and Stabilisation Policies: A Way Forward for Policy Co-Ordination?
by Jagjit S Chadha & Germana Corrado & Luisa Corrado
485 Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model
by Roger Farmer

2017

484 Did Central Banks Cause The Last Financial Crisis? Will They Cause The Next?
by Philip Turner
483 Peer Effects and Social Influence in Post-16 Educational Choice
by Stefan Speckesser & Sophie Hedges
482 Central bank swap lines and CIP deviations
by Richhild Moessner & William A. Allen & Gabriele Galati & William Nelson
481 Union Density, Productivity, and Wages
by Alex Bryson & Erling Barth & Harald Dale-Olsen
480 The power of self-interest: Effects of subsidies for adult education and training
by Justin van de Ven & Cain Polidano & Sarah Voitchovsky
479 Exploring the importance of behavioural endogeneity for policy projections
by Justin van de Ven
478 The Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Crises: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1750-1938
by Jason Lennard & Seán Kenny & John D. Turner
477 Mutual Gains? Is There a Role for Employee Engagement in the Modern Workplace?
by Alex Bryson
476 The interest rate effects of government debt maturity
by Jagjit Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli
475 Foreign Investment and Shared Sovereignty
by Angus Armstrong
474 Academic Review of Asset Lives in the UK
by Ana Rincon-Aznar & Rebecca Riley & Garry Young

2016

473 The UK Economy in the Long Expansion and its Aftermath
by Jagjit Chadha
472 The New Art of Central Banking
by Jagjit Chadha
471 Finance and Credit in a Model of Monetary Policy
by Jagjit Chadha & Young-Kwan Kang
470 Macroprudential tools, transmission and modelling
by Oriol Carreras & E Philip Davis & Rebecca Piggott
469 Quantifying Fiscal Multipliers
by Oriol Carreras & Iana Liadze & Simon Kirby & Rebecca Piggott
468 Fiscal Policy Spillovers
by Oriol Carreras & Simon Kirby & Iana Liadze & Rebecca Piggott
467 The monetary and fiscal framework of the EMU in times of high debt and constrained interest rates
by Ian Hurst & Iana Liadze & Jack Meaning
466 The fiscal and monetary determinants of sovereign bond yields in the Euro Area
by Jessica Baker & Oriol Carreras & Simon Kirby & Jack Meaning
465 Linking Retirement Age to Life Expectancy in a Bismarckian System - The Case of Germany
by Valentin Vogt & JÃ¶rg Althammer
464 Parameterising the LINDA microsimulation model of benefit unit savings and labour supply
by Justin Van de Ven
463 One pillar crumbling, the others too short: Old-age provision in Germany
by Martin Werding
462 Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union
by Monique Ebell & Ian Hurst & James Warren
461 Modelling events: the short-term economic impact of leaving the EU
by Jessica Baker & Simon Kirby & Oriol Carreras & Jack Meaning & Rebecca Piggott
460 The long-term macroeconomic effects of lower migration to the UK
by Katerina Lisenkova & Miguel Sanchez-Martinez
459 LINDA: A dynamic microsimulation model for analysing policy effects on the evolving population cross-section
by Justin van de Ven
458 An Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model with Age-variable Rate of Time Preference
by Katerina Lisenkova

2015

457 Who Wins? Evaluating the Impact of UK Public Sector Pension Scheme Reforms
by Chiara Rosazza-Bondibene & Alex Danzer & Peter Dolton
456 The sustainability of Scottish public finances: a Generational Accounting approach
by Katerina Lisenkova & Miguel Sanchez-Martinez & James Sefton
455 An economic analysis of the existing taxation of pensions (EET) versus an alternative regime (TEE)
by Monique Ebell & Angus Armstrong & Philip Davis
454 What young English people do once they reach school-leaving age: a cross-cohort comparison for the last 30 years
by Jake Anders & Richard Dorsett
453 Does socioeconomic background affect pay growth among early entrants to high-status jobs?
by Jake Anders
452 Ownership and Pay in Britain
by Alex Bryson
451 Intergenerational and Inter-Ethnic Well-Being: An Analysis for the UK
by Richard Dorsett & Cinzia Rienzo & Martin Weale
450 The UK Productivity Puzzle 2008-2013: Evidence From British Businesses
by Rebecca Riley & Chiara Rosazza-Bondibene
449 Raising the Standard: Minimum Wages and Firm Productivity
by Rebecca Riley & Chiara Rosazza-Bondibene
448 The UK's Productivity Puzzle
by Alex Bryson & John Forth
447 Does Worker Wellbeing Affect Workplace Performance?
by Alex Bryson & John Forth & Lucy Stokes
446 Has Performance Pay Increased Wage Inequality in Britain?
by Alex Bryson
445 The School-to-Work Transition: An Overview of Two Recent Studies
by Richard Dorsett & Paolo Lucchino
444 Identifying Tax Implicit Equivalence Scales
by Justin Van de Ven

2014

443 Share Capitalism and Worker Wellbeing
by Alex Bryson
442 Mapping Information Economy Business with Big Data: Findings from the UK
by Max Nathan & Anna Rosso
441 All-Star or Benchwarmer? Relative Age, Cohort Size and Career Success in the NHL
by Alex Bryson
440 Who fared better? The fortunes of performance-pay and fixed-pay workers through recession
by Martin Weale & Alex Bryson & John Forth & Lucy Stokes
439 Employee Stock Purchase Plans - Gift or Incentive? Evidence from a Multinational Corporation
by Alex Bryson
438 Bank Diversification and Valuation: International Evidence
by Angus Armstrong & Tatiana Fic
437 Real Devolution: The Power to Borrow
by Angus Armstrong & Monique Ebell
436 It's Where You Work: Increases in Earnings Dispersion across Establishments and Individuals in the U.S
by Alex Bryson
435 A review of the economic theories of poverty
by Miguel Sanchez-Martinez & Philip Davis
434 Scotland's Lender of Last Resort Options
by Angus Armstrong
433 The Performance Pay Premium: How Big Is It and Does It Affect Wage Dispersion?
by Alex Bryson & John Forth & Lucy Stokes
432 Pay Equity After the Equality Act 2010: Does Sexual Orientation Still Matter?
by Alex Bryson
431 Skills and training for a more innovation-intensive economy
by Geoff Mason
430 Patents as Quality Signals? The Implications for Financing Constraints on R&D
by Bronwyn Hall
429 Issues in the Design of Fiscal Policy Rules
by Jonathan Portes
428 What Accounts for the Union Member Advantage in Voter Turnout? Evidence from the European Union, 2002-2008
by Dr Alex Bryson
427 What Happens When Employers are Free to Discriminate? Evidence from the English Barclays Premier Fantasy Football League
by Dr Alex Bryson
426 Assets and Liabilities and Scottish Independence
by Dr Monique Ebell & Dr Angus Armstrong
425 Biomarkers and Long-term Labour Market Outcomes: The Case of Creatine
by Dr Alex Bryson
424 Human well-being and in-work benefits: a randomized controlled trial
by Dr Richard Dorsett
423 Are firms paying more for performance?
by Dr Alex Bryson & Lucy Stokes & John Forth
422 Overview of the NiGEM-S Model: Scottish version of the National Institute Global Econometric Model
by Dr Katerina Lisenkova & Iana Liadze & Dr Ian Hurst
421 Exploring the Short- and Long-Run Links from Bank Competition to Risk – Reconciling Conflicting Hypotheses?
by E Philip Davis & D Karim

2013

420 The Long Term Economic Impacts of Reducing Migration: the Case of the UK Migration Policy
by Dr Miguel Sanchez-Martinez & Dr Katerina Lisenkova
419 Young people's labour market transitions: the role of early experiences
by Paolo Lucchino & Dr Richard Dorsett
418 Can an Ageing Scotland Afford Independence?
by Dr Katerina Lisenkova
417 Empirical Analysis of Household Savings Decisions in Context of Uncertainty: A cross-sectional approach
by Paolo Lucchino & Dr Justin van de Ven
416 ICT as a general purpose technology: spillovers, absorptive capacity and productivity performance
by Francesco Venturini & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Dr Michela Vecchi
415 Scotland’s Currency Options
by Dr Monique Ebell & Dr Angus Armstrong
414 Visualising the school-to-work transition: an analysis using optimal matching
by Paolo Lucchino & Dr Richard Dorsett
413 The wider economic impacts of high-skilled migrants: a survey of the literature
by Dr Max Nathan
412 Not So Dissatisfied After All? The Impact of Union Coverage on Job Satisfaction
by Dr Alex Bryson
411 The effect of temporary in-work support on employment retention: evidence from a field experiment
by Dr Richard Dorsett
410 The importance (or not) of patents to UK firms
by Professor Bronwyn Hall
409 Can Post-Employment Services Combined with Financial Incentives Improve Employment Retention for Welfare Recipients? Evidence from the Texas Employment Retention and Advancement Evaluation
by Dr Richard Dorsett
407 The influence of decision costs on investments in Individual Savings Accounts
by Dr Justin van de Ven
406 Empirical Analysis of Household Savings Decisions in Context of Uncertainty: A cross-sectional approach
by Paolo Lucchino & Dr Justin van de Ven
405 Modelling the dynamic effects of transfer policy: the LINDA policy analysis tool
by Paolo Lucchino & Dr Justin van de Ven
404 Modelling Demand for Low Skilled/Low Paid Labour: Exploring the Employment Trade-Offs of a Living Wage
by Rebecca Riley

2012

403 Are You Happy While You Work?
by Dr Alex Bryson
402 CEO Incentive Contracts in China: Why Does City Location Matter?
by Dr Alex Bryson & John Forth
401 A Study of Patent Thickets
by Dr Chiara Rosazza Bondibene
399 Employee Voice: A Transaction Costs Perspective
by Dr Alex Bryson
398 The impact of fuel duty on the macro-economy
by Iana Liadze & Dawn Holland
397 What Do We Know About China's CEO's? Evidence from Across the Whole Economy
by Dr Alex Bryson & John Forth
396 Modelling and simulating the banking sectors of the US, Germany and the UK
by Iana Liadze & Professor E. Philip Davis
395 The Trade-off between Income and Smoking as Influences on Mortality: Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey for Men and Women aged Sixty-five and Over
by Dr Silvia Lui & Dr Martin Weale
394 Union Workplace Voice and Civic Engagement
by Dr Alex Bryson
393 Education and its Effects on Survival, Income and Health of those aged Sixty-five and over in the United Kingdom
by Dr Silvia Lui & Dr Martin Weale
392 Do Temporary Agency Workers Affect Workplace Performance?
by Dr Alex Bryson
391 The CEO Labour Market in China's Public Listed Companies
by Dr Alex Bryson & John Forth
390 Human Capital, Matching and Job Satisfaction
by Dr Alex Bryson
389 CEO Bonding: Who Posts Performance Bonds and Why?
by Dr Alex Bryson & John Forth
388 Why Are Migrants Paid More?
by Dr Alex Bryson
387 Well-being, Health and Work
by Dr Alex Bryson
386 Examining the relationship between immigration and unemployment using National Insurance Number registration data
by Paolo Lucchino & Dr Chiara Rosazza Bondibene & Jonathan Portes

2011

385 A Structural Dynamic Microsimulation Model of Household Savings and Labour Supply
by Dr Justin van de Ven
384 Mortality in the British Panel Household Survey: a Test of a Standard Treatment for Non-Response
by Dr Silvia Lui & Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell
383 Education and its Effects on the Income, Health and Survival of those aged Sixty-five and Over (This paper has been revised and is replaced by DP 393)
by Dr Silvia Lui & Dr Martin Weale
382 Change and Persistence in the German Model of Collective Bargaining and Worker Representation
by Dr Alex Bryson
381 HRM and Workplace Motivation: Incremental and Threshold Effects
by Dr Alex Bryson
380 Does High Involvement Management Improve Worker Wellbeing?
by Dr Alex Bryson
379 Labour mobility within the EU
by Dr Tatiana Fic & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Lucy Stokes & Dawn Holland
378 The UK Minimum Wage at Age 22: A Regression Discontinuity Approach
by David Wilkinson & Rebecca Riley
377 Generational Accounts for the United Kingdom
by Dr Martin Weale
376 Does High Involvement Management Lead to Higher Pay?
by Dr Alex Bryson
375 TIER 2 Capital and Bank Behaviour
by Dr Dilruba Karim & Dr Tatiana Fic & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis
374 The Banking Sector and Recovery in the EU Economy
by Dr Tatiana Fic & Ray Barrell

2010

372 The Evolution of the Modern Worker: Attitudes to Work
by Dr Alex Bryson & John Forth
371 Do Higher Wages Come at a Price?
by Dr Alex Bryson
370 A Nonlinear Panel Data Model of Cross-sectional Dependence
by Dr. James Mitchell
369 Sustainability and the Measurement of Wealth
by Kenneth J Arrow
368 Density nowcasts and model combination: nowcasting Euro-area GDP growth over the 2008-9 recession
by Dr. James Mitchell
367 Is there a link from bank size to risk taking?
by Ray Barrell & Tatiana Fic & Phillip Davis
366 Do Salaries Improve Worker Performance?
by Dr Alex Bryson
365 Heterogeneous Worker Ability and Team-based Production: Evidence from Major League Baseball, 1920-2009
by Dr Alex Bryson
364 Policy Efficacy in the Crisis, Exit Strategies and the Return of Growth
by Professor E. Philip Davis
363 Was the subprime crisis unique? An analysis of the factors that help predict banking crises in OECD countries
by Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis
362 Trade Union Membership and Influence 1999-2009
by Dr Alex Bryson & John Forth
361 To Join or Not to Join? Factors Influencing Employee Share Plan Membership in a Multinational Corporation
by Dr Alex Bryson
360 The Non-Transparency of Timeless Rules
by Brian Henry
359 Accounting for UK economic performance 1973-2009
by Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland
358 The Effects of Banking Crises on Potential Output in OECD Countries
by Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis
357 Evaluating off-balance sheet exposures in banking crisis determination models
by Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis
356 The Effects of Myopia on Pension Decisions
by Dr Justin van de Ven
355 An Empirical Investigation of Quasi-hyperbolic Discounting
by Dr Justin van de Ven & Dr Martin Weale
354 Calibrating macroprudential policy
by Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis
352 Economic Benefits of Lifelong Learning
by Dr Richard Dorsett & Dr Silvia Lui & Dr Martin Weale
351 The impact of global imbalances: Does the current account balance help to predict banking crises in OECD countries?
by Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis
350 Slip Sliding Away: Further Union Decline in Germany and Britain
by Dr Alex Bryson

2009

348_2 Monthly and quarterly GDP estimates for interwar Britain
by Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell
348_1 How Does Innovation Affect Worker Wellbeing?
by Dr Alex Bryson
349 A Cost-benefit Analysis of Cataract Surgery based on the English Longitudinal Survey of Ageing
by Dr Martin Weale
347 Rates of return and alternative measures of capital input: 14 countries and 10 branches, 1971-2005
by Ana Rincon-Aznar

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