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Modelling the impact of Covid-19 on the UK economy: an application of a disaggregated New-Keynesian model

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  • Cyrille Lenoel
  • Garry Young

Abstract

We set out a framework that can be used to evaluate policies intended to mitigate the economic effects of Covid-19. In our framework shocks that affect only certain sectors can spill over to other sectors because of input-output linkages and limited income insurance. We show that policies such as the furlough scheme can prevent the sharp rises in unemployment that might arise in the absence of the scheme, and illustrate how such policies can be evaluated using the framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2021. "Modelling the impact of Covid-19 on the UK economy: an application of a disaggregated New-Keynesian model," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 531, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:531
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hantzsche, Arno & Lopresto, Marta & Young, Garry, 2018. "Using NiGEM in uncertain times: Introduction and overview of NiGEM," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 244, pages 1-14, May.
    2. Bennedsen, Morten & Larsen, Birthe & Schmutte, Ian & Scur, Daniela, 2020. "Preserving job matches during the COVID-19 pandemic: firm-level evidence on the role of government aid," GLO Discussion Paper Series 588, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    4. Nickell, Stephen, 1985. "Error Correction, Partial Adjustment and All That: An Expository Note," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(2), pages 119-129, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Ivana MARINOVIC MATOVIC & Andjela LAZAREVIC, 2021. "Business Revenue And Job Retention During Covid-19 Crisis In Manufacturing Sector In Serbia," Business Excellence and Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 11(5), pages 113-128, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; recession; sectoral model; input-output;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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