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Brexit and the Euro

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  • Nauro F Campos
  • Corrado Macchiarelli

Abstract

The year 2019 marked the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the Euro. It was also the last full year before the UK formally left the European Union. This paper examines the relationship between the UK and the euro area. We look at the economic distance between core and periphery groups of countries which is driven by the level of synchronisation in economic activity. We provide new evidence that since 1990 the UK economy has become significantly more integrated with that of the EMU countries. The UK has moved from being in the periphery before 1990 to being part of the core over the following 30 years, despite not being part of the EMU. We also provide evidence that the level of business cycles synchronisation of the UK economy with the EU has had the greatest, among the EU countries, variability over time. We conclude with some policy implications arising from Brexit for the stability of the euro area. Specifically, while synchronisation might have increased the costs of Brexit, the UK exit from the EU represents much less of a threat to the stability of the euro area than the risk of a failure to further European economic integration via fiscal federalism and the banking union.

Suggested Citation

  • Nauro F Campos & Corrado Macchiarelli, 2020. "Brexit and the Euro," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 512, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:512
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    Cited by:

    1. Campos, Nauro F. & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2021. "The dynamics of core and periphery in the European monetary union: A new approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Gerard Delanty, 2020. "Six political philosophies in search of a virus: Critical perspectives on the coronavirus pandemic," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 156, European Institute, LSE.
    3. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2022. "Inflation convergence over time: Sector‐level evidence within Europe," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 183-217, August.
    4. Tobias Tesche, 2020. "The European Union's response to the coronavirus emergency: an early assessment," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 157, European Institute, LSE.
    5. Nina Lopez Uroz, 2020. "Populism Amidst Prosperity: Poland's Growth Model and its Socio-Political Outcomes," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 159, European Institute, LSE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Monetary Union; Eurozone; Core-periphery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration

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