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Economic Costs and Benefits of EMU Membership from the Perspective of a Non-member

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  • Emilia Gyoerk

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

The result of the decision whether to join the European Monetary Union, an irreversible policy choice for several European Union members, presents potentially significant costs and benefits. With a focus on the largest EU economy outside of the euro, Sweden, this paper applies the novel synthetic control method of estimation to evaluate whether there are costs or benefits associated with EMU membership in terms of various aspects of economic performance and how these have developed from 1999 to 2015. Findings indicate that Sweden would have borne non-negligible costs from currency union membership, exemplified by around 10% lower productivity, exports, investment, and consumption, and 8% greater government expenditure and imports on a yearly basis since the introduction of the euro, leading to significant cumulative reductions in potential economic activity. The robust results suggest costs may be persisting and in some cases growing in magnitude.

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  • Emilia Gyoerk, 2017. "Economic Costs and Benefits of EMU Membership from the Perspective of a Non-member," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 893-921, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:28:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s11079-017-9466-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-017-9466-8
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    3. Nauro F Campos & Corrado Macchiarelli, 2020. "Brexit and the Euro," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 512, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    4. Hong Zhuang & Miao Grace Wang & Imre Ersoy & Mesut Eren, 2023. "Does joining the European monetary union improve labor productivity? A synthetic control approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 287-306, June.
    5. Florence Bouvet & Roy Bower & Jason C. Jones, 2022. "Currency Devaluation as a Source of Growth in Africa: A Synthetic Control Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 367-389, June.
    6. Ioannatos, Petros E., 2021. "Systematic growth asymmetry in the Eurozone? Evidence from a natural experiment," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    7. Dieudonné Mignamissi, 2021. "Coûts/gains commerciaux de l'intégration monétaire dans la Zone Franc africaine: Une analyse à partir de 5 scenarii," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(1), pages 180-192, March.
    8. Nauro F Campos & Corrado Macchiarelli, 2020. "The United Kingdom and the stability of the Euro area: From Maastricht to Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1792-1808, July.
    9. Adam Pochmara & Jan Jakub Michałek, 2023. "The impact of the accession to the EU on trade flows of the Visegrad countries. Analysis based on the synthetic control method," Working Papers 2023-21, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

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