IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Pure or wake-up-call contagion? Another look at the EMU sovereign debt crisis

  • Raffaela Giordano


    (Bank of Italy)

  • Marcello Pericoli


    (Bank of Italy)

  • Pietro Tommasino


    (Bank of Italy)

We test whether the sharp increase in sovereign spreads of euro area countries with respect to Germany after the explosion of the Greek crisis was due to deteriorating macroeconomic and fiscal fundamentals or to some form of financial contagion. Our analysis includes indicators of domestic and external imbalances which were mostly disregarded by previous studies, and distinguishes between investors' increased attention to the variables which ultimately determine the creditworthiness of a sovereign borrower (wake-up-call contagion) and behaviour not linked to fundamentals (pure contagion). We find evidence of wake-up-call contagion but not of pure contagion.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 904.

in new window

Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_904_13
Contact details of provider: Postal: Via Nazionale, 91 - 00184 Roma
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Rong Qian & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth Rogoff, . "On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion?," Working Paper 14879, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  2. Bekaert, Geert & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Mehl, Arnaud, 2011. "Global crises and equity market contagion," Working Paper Series 1381, European Central Bank.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Early Warning System: An Assessment of Vulnerability," MPRA Paper 24579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1999. "Regional Contagion and the Globalization of Securities Markets," NBER Working Papers 7153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2004. "Empirical Modeling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 04/78, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
  8. Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October.
  9. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2003. "Hot Money," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000415, UCLA Department of Economics.
  10. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Antonio Di Cesare & Giuseppe Grande & Michele Manna & Marco Taboga, 2012. "Recent estimates of sovereign risk premia for euro-area countries," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 128, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  12. Peter Phillips & Hyungsik Moon, 2000. "Nonstationary panel data analysis: an overview of some recent developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 263-286.
  13. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  14. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "What the Libor-OIS spread says," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  15. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-29, Special I.
  16. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
  17. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
  18. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2001. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 407, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  19. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2009. "Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 371-384, September.
  20. Acharya, Viral V & Drechsler, Itamar & Schnabl, Philipp, 2011. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 8679, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2011. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," NBER Working Papers 17252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September.
  23. Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005. "News spillovers in the sovereign debt market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March.
  24. Kristin Forbes, 2012. "The "Big C": Identifying Contagion," NBER Working Papers 18465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Alter, Adrian & Schüler, Yves S., 2012. "Credit spread interdependencies of European states and banks during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3444-3468.
  27. Antonella Tutino, 2011. "'Rational inattention' guides overloaded brains, helps economists understand market behavior," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 6(mar).
  28. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1222, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  29. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_904_13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.