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Measuring sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone

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  • Suh, Sangwon

Abstract

This paper proposes new measures of financial contagion, as observed during the recent Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. The new measures, referred to as contagion Value-at-Risk and contagion Expected Shortfall, are based on popular risk exposure measures and therefore can provide useful practical information for investors. For this purpose, we construct a new model that disentangles contagion from interdependence. We find that contagion effects fluctuate dynamically, sometimes greatly deviating from mean levels. In addition, the economic value of contagion proves to be quite large, even in stable economies.

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  • Suh, Sangwon, 2015. "Measuring sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 45-65.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:35:y:2015:i:c:p:45-65
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2014.09.002
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    2. Srivastava, Sasha & Lin, Hai & Premachandra, Inguruwatte M. & Roberts, Helen, 2016. "Global risk spillover and the predictability of sovereign CDS spread: International evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 371-390.
    3. V. Rasskazov E. & В. Рассказов Е., 2016. "Измерение Финансового Заражения На Примере Моделирования Риска Банковского Дефолта // The Methodology For Measuring Financial Contagion: The Case Study Of Bank Default Risk Simulation," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 20(3), pages 54-61.
    4. Clancy, Daragh & Gabriele, Carmine & Žigraiová, Diana, 2022. "Sovereign bond market spillovers from crisis-time developments in Greece," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Alexakis, Christos & Pappas, Vasileios, 2018. "Sectoral dynamics of financial contagion in Europe - The cases of the recent crises episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 222-239.
    6. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "Volatility spillovers in EMU sovereign bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 337-352.
    7. Del Brio, Esther B. & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2020. "Risk quantification for commodity ETFs: Backtesting value-at-risk and expected shortfall," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Neha Seth & Monica Sighania, 2017. "Financial market contagion: selective review of reviews," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(4), pages 391-408, November.
    9. Pappas, Vasileios & Ingham, Hilary & Izzeldin, Marwan & Steele, Gerry, 2016. "Will the crisis “tear us apart”? Evidence from the EU," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 346-360.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign risk; Contagion; Value-at-Risk; Expected Shortfall;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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