A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion
This article proposes a new approach to evaluate contagion in financial markets. Our measure of contagion captures the coincidence of extreme return shocks across countries within a region and across regions. We characterize the extent of contagion, its economic significance, and its determinants using a multinomial logistic regression model. Applying our approach to daily returns of emerging markets during the 1990s, we find that contagion is predictable and depends on regional interest rates, exchange rate changes, and conditional stock return volatility. Evidence that contagion is stronger for extreme negative returns than for extreme positive returns is mixed. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 16 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Oxford University Press, Journals Department, 2001 Evans Road, Cary, NC 27513 USA.|
Web page: http://www.rfs.oupjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www4.oup.co.uk/revfin/subinfo/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pownall, Rachel A. J. & Koedijk, Kees G., 1999. "Capturing downside risk in financial markets: the case of the Asian Crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 853-870, December.
- Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999.
"Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-3.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1999.
"What triggers market jitters: a chronicle of the Asian crisis,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
634, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August.
- Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters? A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2094, The World Bank.
- Albert S. Kyle, 2001. "Contagion as a Wealth Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1401-1440, 08.
- Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
- Joseph Stiglitz, 1998. "Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: The Private Uses of Public Interests: Incentives and Institutions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 3-22, Spring.
- Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
- Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements,"
NBER Working Papers
7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Susmel, Raul & Engle, Robert F., 1994. "Hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-25, February.
- Robert F. Engle & Takatoshi Ito & Wen-Ling Lin, 1988.
"Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-Daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market,"
NBER Working Papers
2609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-542, May.
- Mervyn A. King & Sushil Wadhwani, 1989.
"Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
2910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- T. Todd Smith & Garry J. Schinasi, 1999.
"Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion,"
IMF Working Papers
- Garry J. Schinasi & R. Todd Smith, 2000. "Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-1.
- R. Gaston Gelos & Ratna Sahay, 2001.
"Financial market spillovers in transition economies,"
The Economics of Transition,
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 53-86, March.
- Ratna Sahay & R. G Gelos, 2000. "Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/71, .
- King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994.
"Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets,"
Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-933, July.
- Mervyn King & Enrique Sentana & Sushil Wadhwani, 1990. "Volatiltiy and Links Between National Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 3357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-538.
- Bae, Kee-Hong & Andrew Karolyi, G., 1995.
"Good news, band news and international spilovers of stock return volatility between Japan and the U.S,"
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,
Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 144-144, May.
- Bae, Kee-Hong & Andrew Karolyi, G., 1994. "Good news, bad news and international spillovers of stock return volatility between Japan and the U.S," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 405-438, December.
- Karolyi, G Andrew & Stulz, Rene M, 1996.
" Why Do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 951-986, July.
- G. Andrew Karoly & Rene Stulz, "undated". "Why do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements," Research in Financial Economics 9603, Ohio State University.
- Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July.
- Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
- Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000.
"On crises, contagion, and confusion,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), 1996. "Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets after the Mexican Crisis," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 49, January.
- Maddala,G. S., 1986. "Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521338257, December.
- Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 241-256, June.
- McFadden, Daniel, 1974. "The measurement of urban travel demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 303-328, November.
- Brian H. Boyer & Michael S. Gibson & Mico Loretan, 1997. "Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations," International Finance Discussion Papers 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:16:y:2003:i:3:p:717-763. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.