What explains the surge in euro area sovereign spreads during the financial crisis of 2007-09?
This paper uses a dynamic panel approach to explain the determinants of widening sovereign bond yield spreads vis-à-vis Germany in selected euro area countries during the period end-July 2007 to end-March 2009, when the financial turmoil developed into a full-blown financial and economic crisis. Emphasis is given to the role of fiscal fundamentals and government announcements of substantial bank rescue packages. The paper finds that higher expected budget deficits and/or higher government debt ratios relative to Germany contributed to higher government bond yield spreads in the euro area during the analysed period. More importantly, the announcements of bank rescue packages have led to a re-assessment, from the part of investors, of sovereign credit risk, first and foremost through a transfer of risk from the private financial sector to the government. JEL Classification: E62, E43, G12
|Date of creation:||Dec 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany|
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thomas Laubach, 2003.
"New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, 06.
- Kerstin Bernoth & Guntram B. Wolff, 2006.
"Fool the Markets? Creative Accounting, Fiscal Transparency and Sovereign Risk Premia,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1732, CESifo Group Munich.
- Kerstin Bernoth & Guntram B. Wolff, 2008. "Fool The Markets? Creative Accounting, Fiscal Transparency And Sovereign Risk Premia," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 465-487, 09.
- Kerstin Bernoth & Guntram Wolff, 2006. "Fool the markets? Creative accounting, fiscal transparency and sovereign risk premia," DNB Working Papers 103, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & Wolff, Guntram B., 2006. "Fool the markets? Creative accounting, fiscal transparency and sovereign risk premia," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,19, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Afonso, António & Strauch, Rolf, 2004.
"Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: evidence from the EU,"
Working Paper Series
0303, European Central Bank.
- Afonso, Antonio & Strauch, Rolf, 2007. "Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: Evidence from the EU," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 261-276, July.
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009.
"Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2006. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence From the Euro-Area Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 12376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004.
"Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market,"
ZEI Working Papers
B 26-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," Working Paper Series 0369, European Central Bank.
- Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 443-489, 07.
- Marta Gómez-Puig, 2005.
"The Impact Of Monetary Union On Eu-15 Sovereign Debt Yield Spreads,"
05-11, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
- Marta Gómez-Puig, . "The Impact of Monetary Union on EU-15 Sovereign Debt Yield Spreads," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 05-11, FEDEA.
- Marta Gomez Puig, 2006. "The Impact of Monetary Union on EU-15 Sovereign Debt Yield Spreads," Working Papers in Economics 147, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
- Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H. & Hüfner, Felix P., 2004. "Expected budget deficits and interest rate swap spreads - Evidence for France, Germany and Italy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,40, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Hallerberg, Mark & Wolff, Guntram B., 2006. "Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,35, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- James M. Poterba & Kim Rueben, 1999.
"State Fiscal Institutions and the U.S. Municipal Bond Market,"
in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 181-208
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James M. Poterba & Kim S. Rueben, 1997. "State Fiscal Institutions and the U.S. Municipal Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 6237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alexopoulou, Ioana & Bunda, Irina & Ferrando, Annalisa, 2009.
"Determinants of government bond spreads in new EU countries,"
Working Paper Series
1093, European Central Bank.
- Ioana Alexopoulou & Irina Bunda & Annalisa Ferrando, 2010. "Determinants of Government Bond Spreads in New EU Countries," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(5), pages 5-37, September.
- Magnus Andersson & Lars Jul Overby & Szabolcs Sebestyén, 2009.
"Which News Moves the Euro Area Bond Market?,"
German Economic Review,
Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 1-31, 02.
- Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
- Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 388, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Simone Manganelli & Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "What drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 191-240, 04.
- Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.