IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Fiscal variables and bond spreads: evidence from eastern European countries and Turkey

  • Nickel, Christiane
  • Rother, Philipp
  • Rülke, Jan C.

We investigate the impact of fiscal variables on bond yield spreads relative to US Treasury bonds in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey from May 1998 to December 2007. To account for the importance of market expectations we use projected values for fiscal and macroeconomic variables generated from Consensus Economics Forecasts. Moreover, we compare results from panel regressions with those from country (seemingly unrelated regression) estimates, and conduct analogous regressions for a control group of Latin American countries. We find that the role of the individual explanatory variables, including the importance of fiscal variables, varies across countries. JEL Classification: C33, E43, E62, H62

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1101.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1101.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091101
Contact details of provider: Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Morris Goldstein & Geoffrey Woglom, 1991. "Market-Based Fiscal Discipline in Monetary Unions; Evidence From the U.S. Municipal Bond Market," IMF Working Papers 91/89, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Marc Flandreau & Jacques Le Cacheux & Frédéric Zumer, 1998. "Stability without a pact? Lessons from the European gold standard, 1880-1914," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 115-162, 04.
  3. Kerstin Bernoth & Guntram B. Wolff, 2006. "Fool the Markets? Creative Accounting, Fiscal Transparency and Sovereign Risk Premia," CESifo Working Paper Series 1732, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Ebner, André, 2009. "An empirical analysis on the determinants of CEE government bond spreads," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 97-121, June.
  5. Kolb, R. A. & Stekler, H. O., 1996. "Is there a consensus among financial forecasters?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 455-464, December.
  6. James M. Poterba & Kim S. Rueben, 1997. "State Fiscal Institutions and the U.S. Municipal Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 6237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Mark Hallerberg & Guntram Wolff, 2008. "Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia in EMU," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 379-396, September.
  8. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2003, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  9. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ruth A. Judson & Ann L. Owen, 1997. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a practical guide for macroeconomists," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 443-489, 07.
  12. Beck, Roland, 2001. "Do country fundamentals explain emerging market bond spreads?," CFS Working Paper Series 2001/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  13. Manmohan S. Kumar & Jirí Jonáš & David Hauner, 2007. "Policy Credibility and Sovereign Credit; The Case of New EU Member States," IMF Working Papers 07/1, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Maarten Allers & Jakob De Haan & Flip De Kam, 1998. "Using Survey Data To Test for Ricardian Equivalence," Public Finance Review, , vol. 26(6), pages 565-582, November.
  15. Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 97-124.
  16. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Greer, Mark, 2003. "Directional accuracy tests of long-term interest rate forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 291-298.
  18. Bayoumi, Tamim & Goldstein, Morris & Woglom, Geoffrey, 1995. "Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from the U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1046-59, November.
  19. Afonso, António & Strauch, Rolf, 2004. "Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: evidence from the EU," Working Paper Series 0303, European Central Bank.
  20. Thomas Laubach, 2003. "New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Dailami, Mansoor & Masson, Paul R. & Padou, Jean Jose, 2005. "Global monetary conditions versus country-specific factors in the determination of emerging market debt spreads," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3626, The World Bank.
  22. Jonas Dovern & Johannes Weisser, 2008. "Are They Really Rational? Assessing Professional Macro-Economic Forecasts from the G7-Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1447, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  23. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
  24. Bayoumi, Tamim & Goldstein, Morris & Woglom, Geoffrey, 1995. "Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from US States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.