Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada
This paper focuses on risk premiums paid by central governments in Europe and sub-national governments in Germany, Spain, and Canada, using data for bond yield spreads for the period 1991-2005. We find that risk premiums by central governments respond positively to debt and deficits; German states enjoyed a favourable position in financial markets before EMU but not thereafter; Spanish and Canadian provinces risk premiums over the whole period; German and Spanish sub-central governments pay liquidity-related interest rate premiums; Canadian and German provinces/states that benefit from fiscal equalization lower spreads. This is evidence of market discipline at work and of credibility of the EU no-bailout clause.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kirsten H. Heppke-Falk & Guntram B. Wolff, 2008.
"Moral Hazard and Bail-Out in Fiscal Federations: Evidence for the German Länder,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 425-446, 08.
- Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H. & Wolff, Guntram B., 2007. "Moral hazard and bail-out in fiscal federations: evidence for the German Länder," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Goldstein, Morris & Woglom, Geoffrey, 1995. "Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from the U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1046-59, November.
- Steven B. Kamin & K von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging markets credit spreads in the 1990s," BIS Working Papers 68, Bank for International Settlements.
- James M. Poterba & Kim Rueben, 1999.
"State Fiscal Institutions and the U.S. Municipal Bond Market,"
in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 181-208
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James M. Poterba & Kim S. Rueben, 1997. "State Fiscal Institutions and the U.S. Municipal Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 6237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012.
"Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & Hagen, Jürgen von & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2006. "Sovereign Risk Premiums in the European Government Bond Market," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 151, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
- Mardi Dungey & Vance L Martin & Adrian R Pagan, 2000. "A multivariate latent factor decomposition of international bond yield spreads," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 697-715.
- Gomez-Puig, Marta, 2006. "Size matters for liquidity: Evidence from EMU sovereign yield spreads," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 156-162, February.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Goldstein, Morris & Woglom, Geoffrey, 1995. "Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from US States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael J. Fleming, 2003.
"Measuring treasury market liquidity,"
Economic Policy Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 83-108.
- António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2006.
"What “Hides” Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?,"
Working Papers Department of Economics
2006/35, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Laurence Copeland & Sally-Anne Jones, 2001. "Default probabilities of European sovereign debt: market-based estimates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 321-324.
- Ingunn LØnning, 2000. "Default premia on European government debt," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 259-283, June.
- Afonso, Antonio & Strauch, Rolf, 2007.
"Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: Evidence from the EU,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,
Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 261-276, July.
- Afonso, António & Strauch, Rolf, 2004. "Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: evidence from the EU," Working Paper Series 0303, European Central Bank.
- Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H. & Hüfner, Felix P., 2004. "Expected budget deficits and interest rate swap spreads - Evidence for France, Germany and Italy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,40, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Manganelli, Simone & Wolswijk, Guido, 2007. "Market discipline, financial integration and fiscal rules: what drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Working Paper Series 0745, European Central Bank.
- Toni Gravelle, 1999.
"Liquidity of the Government of Canada Securities Market: Stylised Facts and Some Market Microstructure Comparisons to the United States Treasury Market,"
CGFS Papers chapters,
in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market Liquidity: Research Findings and Selected Policy Implications, volume 11, pages 1-37
Bank for International Settlements.
- Gravelle, Toni, 1999. "Liquidity of the Government of Canada Securities Market: Stylized Facts and Some Market Microstructure Comparisons to the United States Treasury Market," Working Papers 99-11, Bank of Canada.
- Jan J.G. Lemmen & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 1999. "Credit Risks and European Government Bond Markets: A Panel Data Econometric Analysis," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 77-107, Winter.
- Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 443-489, 07.
- Marco Pagano, 2004.
"The European Bond Markets under EMU,"
Oxford Review of Economic Policy,
Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 531-554, Winter.
- Pagano, Marco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2004. "The European Bond Markets Under EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 4779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marco Pagano & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2004. "The European Bond Markets under EMU," CSEF Working Papers 126, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2002. "Should the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve be concerned about fiscal policy?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 333-389.
- Carlo Favero & Marco Pagano & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2005. "Valutation, Liquidity and Risk in Government Bond Markets," Working Papers 281, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2004.
"Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil,"
NBER Working Papers
10390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jan J.G. Lemmen, 1999. "Managing Government Default Risk in Federal States," FMG Special Papers sp116, Financial Markets Group.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-134 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Booth & George Georgopoulos & Walid Hejazi, 2007. "What drives provincial-Canada yield spreads?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 1008-1032, August.
- Steven B. Kamin & Karsten von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging market credit spreads in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 653, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:25:y:2009:i:3:p:371-384. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.