Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil
Studying the recent experience of Brazil the paper explains how default risk is at the centre of the mechanism through which an emerging market central bank that targets inflation might lose control of inflation--in other words of the mechanism through which the economy might move from a regime of 'monetary dominance' to one of 'fiscal dominance'. The literature, from Sargent and Wallace (1981) to the modern fiscal theory of the price level has discussed how an unsustainable fiscal policy may hinder the effectiveness of monetary policy, to the point that an increase in interest rates can have a perverse effect on inflation. We show that the presence of default risk reinforces the possibility that a vicious circle might arise, making the fiscal constraint on monetary policy more stringent.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2004|
|Publication status:||published as Giavezzi, Francesco, Ilan Goldfajn and Santiago Herrera (eds.) Inflation Targeting, Debt, and the Brazilian Experience, 1999 to 2003. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2005.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993.
"Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors,"
IMF Staff Papers,
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- Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, "undated". "Why are Brazil´s Interest Rates so High?," Working Papers 224, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Dirk Niepelt, 2004. "The Fiscal Myth of the Price Level," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 277-300.
- Niepelt, Dirk, 2002. "The Fiscal Myth of the Price Level," Seminar Papers 710, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Alexius, Annika, 2002. "Can Endogenous Monetary Policy Explain the Deviations from UIP," Working Paper Series 2002:17, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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