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Default Risk Premia on Government Bonds in a Quantitative Macroeconomic Model

Author

Listed:
  • Falko Juessen
  • Ludger Linnemann
  • Andreas Schabert

Abstract

We develop a macroeconomic model where the government does not guarantee to repay debt. We ask whether movements in the price of government bonds can be rationalized by lenders' unwillingness to fully roll over debt when the outstanding level of debt exceeds the government's repayment capacity. Investors do not support a Ponzi game and ration credit supply in this case, thus forcing default at an endogenously determined fractional repayment rate. Interest rates on government bonds re.ect expectations of this event. Numerical results show that default premia can emerge at moderately high debt-to-GDP ratios where even small changes in fundamentals lead to steeply rising interest rates. The behavior of risk premia broadly accords to recent observations for several European countries that experienced a worsening of fundamental fiscal conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Falko Juessen & Ludger Linnemann & Andreas Schabert, 2014. "Default Risk Premia on Government Bonds in a Quantitative Macroeconomic Model," Working Paper Series in Economics 73, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:kls:series:0073
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Huixin Bi & Wenyi Shen & Susan S. Yang, 2014. "Fiscal Limits, External Debt, and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 14/49, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Bi, Huixin, 2012. "Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 389-410.
    3. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2019. "On The Role Of Debt Maturity In A Model With Sovereign Risk And Financial Frictions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(05), pages 2114-2131, July.
    4. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2011. "Fiscal Limits in Advanced Economies," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 30(1), pages 33-47, March.
    5. Erica Perego, 2018. "Sovereign Risk and Asset Market Dynamics in the Euro Area," Working Papers 2018-18, CEPII research center.
    6. Kazumasa Oguro & Motohiro Sato, 2014. "Public debt accumulation and fiscal consolidation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 663-673, March.
    7. Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper, 2013. "Analyzing Fiscal Sustainability," Staff Working Papers 13-27, Bank of Canada.
    8. repec:eee:ecofin:v:47:y:2019:i:c:p:406-430 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Erica Perego, 2018. "Sovereign risk and asset market dynamics in the euro area," Documents de recherche 18-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    10. Huixin Bi, 2010. "Sovereign Default Risk Premia, Fiscal Limits and Fiscal Policy," CAEPR Working Papers 2010-007, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign default; fiscal policy; government debt;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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