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Sovereigns at risk: A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage

Author

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  • Nuno Coimbra

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic model with heterogeneous investors and sovereign default to analyze the dynamic link between banking sector capitalization and sovereign bond yields. The banking sector is modelled as operating under a Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint, which can bind occasionally. As default risk rises, the constraint may bind, generating a fall in demand for sovereign bonds that can be accompanied by a rise in the risk premium if other agents are more risk averse. In turn, the rise in risk premium leads to a feedback effect through debt accumulation dynamics and the probability of government default.

Suggested Citation

  • Nuno Coimbra, 2020. "Sovereigns at risk: A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage," Post-Print halshs-02491806, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02491806
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103298
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    Cited by:

    1. Gilchrist, Simon & Wei, Bin & Yue, Vivian Z. & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2022. "Sovereign risk and financial risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Sewon Hur & César Sosa-Padilla & Zeynep Yom, 2021. "Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises," Globalization Institute Working Papers 406, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 27 Feb 2024.
    3. Liubov Lysiak & Iuliia Masiuk & Anatolii Chynchyk & Olena Yudina & Oleksandr Olshanskiy & Valentyna Shevchenko, 2022. "Banking Risks in the Asset and Liability Management System," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Florent Kanga GBONGUE & Lambert N’Galadjo BAMBA, 2023. "Le modèle hybride de la structure par terme des primes souveraines de crédit et de liquidité dans la zone UEMOA," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 57, pages 101-145.
    5. Hürtgen, Patrick, 2020. "Fiscal sustainability duringthe COVID-19 pandemic," Discussion Papers 35/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Torres, Leonardo Barros & Paczos, Wojtek & Shakhnov,, 2024. "Domestic and Foreign Sovereign Debt Stability," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/8, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

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