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Sovereign Risk and Financial Risk

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2021

Author

Listed:
  • Simon Gilchrist
  • Bin Wei
  • Vivian Z. Yue
  • Egon Zakrajšek

Abstract

In this paper, we study the interplay between sovereign risk and global financial risk. We show that a substantial portion of the comovement among sovereign spreads is accounted for by changes in global financial risk. We construct bond-level sovereign spreads for dollar-denominated bonds issued by over 50 countries from 1995 to 2020 and use various indicators to measure global financial risk. Through panel regressions and local projection analysis, we find that an increase in global financial risk causes a large and persistent widening of sovereign bond spreads. These effects are strongest when measuring global risk using the excess bond premium – a measure of the risk-bearing capacity of U.S. financial intermediaries. The spillover effects of global financial risk are more pronounced for speculative-grade sovereign bonds.
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Suggested Citation

  • Simon Gilchrist & Bin Wei & Vivian Z. Yue & Egon Zakrajšek, 2021. "Sovereign Risk and Financial Risk," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14596
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    Cited by:

    1. Gopinath, Gita & Meyer, Josefin & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2025. "Sovereign vs. corporate debt and default: More similar than you think," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Florent Kanga GBONGUE & Lambert N’Galadjo BAMBA, 2023. "Le modèle hybride de la structure par terme des primes souveraines de crédit et de liquidité dans la zone UEMOA," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 57, pages 101-145.
    3. Chen, Sihao, 2025. "International production networks and the propagation of financial shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    4. Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando & Romero, José Vicente & Ramírez-González, Mahicol Stiben, 2025. "The Global Financial Cycle and country risk in emerging markets during stress episodes: A Copula-CoVaR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA).
    5. Chernov, Mikhail & Creal, Drew & Hördahl, Peter, 2023. "Sovereign credit and exchange rate risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific local currency bonds," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Raluca Maran, 2025. "Do investors reward sovereign catastrophe bond issuance? Evidence from a panel of 26 disaster-prone countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 161(2), pages 705-741, May.
    7. Epstein, Brendan & Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & González Gómez, Andrés, 2019. "Global financial risk, aggregate fluctuations, and unemployment dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 351-418.
    8. Baṣkaya, Yusuf Soner & Hardy, Bryan & Kalemli-Özcan, Ṣebnem & Yue, Vivian, 2024. "Sovereign risk and bank lending: Evidence from 1999 Turkish Earthquake," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    9. István Ábel & Ádám Kóbor, 2022. "Macroeconomic Components of the Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Hungary," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, October.
    10. Olivier Damette & Clément Mathonnat & Julien Thavard, 2024. "Climate and sovereign risk: The Latin American experience with strong ENSO events," Post-Print hal-05269033, HAL.
    11. Akıncı, Özge, 2013. "Global financial conditions, country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 358-371.
    12. Mohamed M. Sraieb & Shahnawaz Muhammed & Vladimir Dženopoljac & Samet Gunay, 2025. "Determinants of Russia’s probability of default: evidence from domestic and global indicators," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(3), pages 854-882, September.
    13. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros M. Migiakis, 2025. "Sovereign bonds' risk‐based heterogeneity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 2108-2129, July.
    14. Jiang, Yong & Klein, Tony & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Dai, Jia-Hang, 2025. "Through the looking glass: Unveiling geopolitical risks and sovereign bond spillovers in the eurozone," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    15. Capraru, Bogdan & Georgescu, George & Sprincean, Nicu, 2023. "Fiscal Rules, Independent Fiscal Institutions, and Sovereign Risk," Working Papers of Romania Fiscal Council 230201, Romania Fiscal Council.
    16. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Manabu Nose, 2025. "Determinants of Domestic Sovereign Bond Yields: Fiscal Policy and the Sovereign–Bank Nexus in Emerging Market and Developing Economies," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series DP2025-022, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    18. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M. & Valencia, Oscar M., 2025. "Asymmetric sovereign risk: Implications for climate change preparation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    19. Wu, Shan & Liu, Yilong & Song, Ziyu & Zhou, Yuqin & Guo, Wenjing, 2024. "Network structure, dynamic evolution and block characteristics of sovereign debt risk: The global evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PA).
    20. J. Scott Davis & Eric Van Wincoop, 2021. "A Theory of Gross and Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle," Globalization Institute Working Papers 410, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 20 Dec 2022.
    21. Janus, Jakub, 2025. "Global financial risk and uncovered interest parity premia in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    22. Yusuf Soner Başkaya & Bryan Hardy & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Vivian Z. Yue, 2023. "Sovereign Risk and Bank Lending: Theory and Evidence from a Natural Disaster," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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