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Sovereign Risk and Financial Risk

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2021

Author

Listed:
  • Simon Gilchrist
  • Bin Wei
  • Vivian Z. Yue
  • Egon Zakrajšek

Abstract

In this paper, we study the interplay between sovereign risk and global financial risk. We show that a substantial portion of the comovement among sovereign spreads is accounted for by changes in global financial risk. We construct bond-level sovereign spreads for dollar-denominated bonds issued by over 50 countries from 1995 to 2020 and use various indicators to measure global financial risk. Through panel regressions and local projection analysis, we find that an increase in global financial risk causes a large and persistent widening of sovereign bond spreads. These effects are strongest when measuring global risk using the excess bond premium – a measure of the risk-bearing capacity of U.S. financial intermediaries. The spillover effects of global financial risk are more pronounced for speculative-grade sovereign bonds.
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Suggested Citation

  • Simon Gilchrist & Bin Wei & Vivian Z. Yue & Egon Zakrajšek, 2021. "Sovereign Risk and Financial Risk," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14596
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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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