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Sovereign Risk and Bank Lending: Evidence from 1999 Turkish Earthquake

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  • Yusuf Soner Baskaya
  • Bryan Hardy
  • Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan
  • Vivian Yue

Abstract

We use an exogenous fiscal shock to identify the transmission of government risk to bank lending due to banks holding government bonds. We illustrate with a theoretical model that for banks with higher exposure to government bonds, a higher sovereign default risk implies lower bank net worth and less lending. Our empirical estimates confirm the model’s predictions. The exogenous change in sovereign default risk of Turkish government debt as a result of the 1999 earthquake impacts banks whose balance sheets were exposed more to government bonds. The resulting lower bank net worth translates into lower credit supply. We rule out alternative explanations. Our estimates suggest this channel can explain half of the decline in bank lending following the earthquake. This underlines the importance of the bank balance-sheet channel in transmitting a higher sovereign default risk to reduced real economic activity.

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  • Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Bryan Hardy & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Vivian Yue, 2016. "Sovereign Risk and Bank Lending: Evidence from 1999 Turkish Earthquake," NBER Working Papers 22335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22335
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Williams, 2018. "Capital Inflows, Sovereign Debt and Bank Lending: Micro-Evidence from an Emerging Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(12), pages 4958-4994.
    2. Baskaya, Yusuf Soner & di Giovanni, Julian & Kalemli-Özcan, Şebnem & Peydro, José-Luis & Ulu, Mehmet Fatih, 2017. "Capital flows and the international credit channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 15-22.
    3. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Tomas Williams, 2019. "Winners and losers from Sovereign debt inflows: evidence from the stock market," Economics Working Papers 1693, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Luigi Bocola, 2017. "Sovereign risk and firm heterogeneity," Staff Report 547, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Mehmet Fatih Ulu & Yusuf Soner Baskaya, 2022. "International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles [Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Spillovers with Imperfect Financial Markets]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(2), pages 733-773.
    6. Gennaioli, Nicola & Martin, Alberto & Rossi, Stefano, 2018. "Banks, government Bonds, and Default: What do the data Say?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 98-113.
    7. José Carlos Teixeira & Carlos Vieira & Paulo Ferreira, 2021. "The Effects of Government Bonds on Liquidity Risk and Bank Profitability in Cape Verde," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, January.
    8. Lucas A. Mariani & Silvia Marchesi, 2023. "International Lending Channel, Bank Heterogeneity and Capital Inflows (Mis)Allocation," Working Papers 887, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    9. Stefano Federico & Fadi Hassan & Veronica Rappoport, 2019. "Trade shocks and credit reallocation," CEP Discussion Papers dp1649, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Luigi Bocola, 2017. "Sovereign Default Risk and Firm Heterogeneity," NBER Working Papers 23314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Michael Chui & Emese Kuruc & Philip Turner, 2016. "A new dimension to currency mismatches in the emerging markets - non-financial companies," BIS Working Papers 550, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Bottero, Margherita & Lenzu, Simone & Mezzanotti, Filippo, 2020. "Sovereign debt exposure and the bank lending channel: Impact on credit supply and the real economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Stefano Federico & Fadi Hassan & Veronica Rappoport, 2020. "Trade shocks and credit reallocation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1289, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Ferreira, Caio & Jenkinson, Nigel & Laeven, Luc & Martin, Alberto & Minoiu, Camelia & Popov, Alexander, 2018. "Managing the sovereign-bank nexus," Working Paper Series 2177, European Central Bank.
    15. Lucas Argentieri Mariani & Silvia Marchesi, 2023. "International Lending Channel, Bank Heterogeneity and Capital Inflows (Mis)Allocation," Working Papers 523, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    16. Gonzalez-Aguado, Eugenia, 2022. "Interest Rate Shocks and the Composition of Sovereign Debt," TSE Working Papers 22-1379, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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