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Sovereign Risk and Bank Lending: Evidence from 1999 Turkish Earthquake

Listed author(s):
  • Yusuf Soner Baskaya
  • Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

We investigate the effect of sovereign risk on credit supply, using August 1999 Earthquake as an exogenous shock leading to an increase in Turkey's default risk. Using data on universe of banks between 1997-2012, we show that, banks with higher ex-ante exposures to government bonds suffered a bigger shock to their networth and decreased lending more ex-post. Tracing the impact of an exogenous increase in the sovereign spread to credit supply, the average bank decreases its credit supply by 1.6 percentage points which corresponds to 55 percent of the actual decline in aggregate loan provision in the aftermath of the shock.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 22335.

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Date of creation: Jun 2016
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22335
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  1. Farhi, Emmanuel & Tirole, Jean, 2015. "Deadly Embrace: Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets Doom Loops," CEPR Discussion Papers 11024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
  3. Alexander Popov & Neeltje Van Horen, 2015. "Exporting Sovereign Stress: Evidence from Syndicated Bank Lending during the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(5), pages 1825-1866.
  4. Buch, Claudia M. & Koetter, Michael & Ohls, Jana, 2016. "Banks and sovereign risk: A granular view," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-15.
  5. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
  6. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
  7. Filippo Brutti & Philip Ulrich Sauré, 2014. "Repatriation of Debt in the Euro Crisis: Evidence for the Secondary Market Theory," Working Papers 2014-03, Swiss National Bank.
  8. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
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