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Sovereign Risk and Bank Lending: Evidence from 1999 Turkish Earthquake

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  • Yusuf Soner Baskaya
  • Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

Abstract

We investigate the effect of sovereign risk on credit supply, using August 1999 Earthquake as an exogenous shock leading to an increase in Turkey's default risk. Using data on universe of banks between 1997-2012, we show that, banks with higher ex-ante exposures to government bonds suffered a bigger shock to their networth and decreased lending more ex-post. Tracing the impact of an exogenous increase in the sovereign spread to credit supply, the average bank decreases its credit supply by 1.6 percentage points which corresponds to 55 percent of the actual decline in aggregate loan provision in the aftermath of the shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2016. "Sovereign Risk and Bank Lending: Evidence from 1999 Turkish Earthquake," NBER Working Papers 22335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22335
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Williams, 2018. "Capital Inflows, Sovereign Debt and Bank Lending: Micro-Evidence from an Emerging Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(12), pages 4958-4994.
    2. Baskaya, Yusuf Soner & di Giovanni, Julian & Kalemli-Özcan, Şebnem & Peydro, José-Luis & Ulu, Mehmet Fatih, 2017. "Capital flows and the international credit channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 15-22.
    3. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Tomas Williams, 2019. "Winners and losers from Sovereign debt inflows: evidence from the stock market," Economics Working Papers 1693, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Luigi Bocola, 2017. "Sovereign risk and firm heterogeneity," Staff Report 547, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Julian di Giovanni & Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Mehmet Fatih Ulu, 2017. "International spillovers and local credit cycles," Economics Working Papers 1559, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2020.
    6. Gennaioli, Nicola & Martin, Alberto & Rossi, Stefano, 2018. "Banks, government Bonds, and Default: What do the data Say?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 98-113.
    7. José Carlos Teixeira & Carlos Vieira & Paulo Ferreira, 2021. "The Effects of Government Bonds on Liquidity Risk and Bank Profitability in Cape Verde," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, January.
    8. Rappoport, Veronica & Federico, Stefano & Hassan, Fadi, 2019. "Trade shocks and credit reallocation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103422, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Luigi Bocola, 2017. "Sovereign Default Risk and Firm Heterogeneity," NBER Working Papers 23314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Michael Chui & Emese Kuruc & Philip Turner, 2016. "A new dimension to currency mismatches in the emerging markets - non-financial companies," BIS Working Papers 550, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Bottero, Margherita & Lenzu, Simone & Mezzanotti, Filippo, 2020. "Sovereign debt exposure and the bank lending channel: Impact on credit supply and the real economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    12. Stefano Federico & Fadi Hassan & Veronica Rappoport, 2020. "Trade shocks and credit reallocation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1289, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Ferreira, Caio & Jenkinson, Nigel & Laeven, Luc & Martin, Alberto & Minoiu, Camelia & Popov, Alexander, 2018. "Managing the sovereign-bank nexus," Working Paper Series 2177, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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