Sovereign Default Risk and Firm Heterogeneity
This paper studies the recessionary effects of sovereign default risk using firm-level data and a model of sovereign debt with firm heterogeneity. Our environment features a two-way feedback loop. Low output decreases the tax revenues of the government and raises the risk that it will default on its debt. The associated increase in sovereign interest rate spreads, in turn, raises the interest rates paid by firms, which further depresses their production. Importantly, these effects are not homogeneous across firms, as interest rate hikes have more severe consequences for firms that are in need of borrowing. Our approach consists of using these cross-sectional implications of the model, together with micro data, to measure the effects that sovereign risk has on real economic activity. In an application to Italy, we find that the progressive heightening of sovereign risk during the recent crisis was responsible for 50% of the observed decline in output.
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|Date of creation:||Apr 2017|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
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- Saleem A. Bahaj, 2014.
"Systemic sovereign risk: macroeconomic implications in the euro area,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
58110, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Saleem Bahaj, 2014. "Systemic Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Implications in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 1406, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
- Saleem A. Bahaj, 2014. "Systemic Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Implications in the Euro Area," Working Papers 191, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Benjamin Hébert & Jesse Schreger, 2014. "The Costs of Sovereign Default: Evidence from Argentina," Working Paper 223701, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Jesse Schreger, 2015. "The Costs of Sovereign Default: Evidence from Argentina," 2015 Meeting Papers 240, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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- Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador, 2013. "Take the Short Route: How to Repay and Restructure Sovereign Debt with Multiple Maturities," NBER Working Papers 19717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Acharya, Viral V & Eisert, Tim & Eufinger, Christian & Hirsch, Christian, 2014. "Real Effects of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe: Evidence from Syndicated Loans," CEPR Discussion Papers 10108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Luigi Bocola, 2014. "The Pass-Through of Sovereign Risk," 2014 Meeting Papers 1286, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Bocola, Luigi, 2015. "The Pass-Through of Sovereign Risk," Working Papers 722, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Christopher L. House & Christian Proebsting & Linda L. Tesar, 2017. "Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 23147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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